UNC basketball faces Duke in a crucial final regular-season matchup, with the Tar Heels (20-13, 13-6 ACC) vying for an NCAA Tournament spot, while the Blue Devils (27-3, 18-1) aim for their first outright ACC title since 2022. The game, set for 6:30 p.m. on Saturday, could enhance UNC’s March Madness hopes or allow Duke a season sweep. Both teams have key players, with UNC’s RJ Davis excelling in recent games, and Duke’s Isaiah Evans providing offensive support off the bench. A projected outcome favors Duke 85-70, despite UNC’s recent winning streak.
UNC basketball faces off against Duke in a critical showdown on the last day of the regular season.
The Tar Heels (20-13, 13-6 ACC) are in pursuit of a spot in the NCAA Tournament, while the second-ranked Blue Devils (27-3, 18-1) aim to clinch their first outright ACC regular-season championship since 2022.
The 264th edition of this rivalry will kick off at 6:30 p.m. Saturday from the Smith Center. A victory for UNC would significantly enhance their chances of participating in March Madness, while a win for the Blue Devils would mark a sweep over the Tar Heels for the second time in three seasons under head coach Jon Scheyer.
Duke faced little resistance in their 87-70 victory against UNC on February 1 at Cameron Indoor Stadium, showcasing exceptional performances from freshmen Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel. However, RJ Davis and the Tar Heels have been on a roll lately, winning six straight games leading up to this regular-season finale.
Here’s a preview, key players to watch, and a score prediction for the upcoming UNC vs. Duke game.
RJ Davis, UNC basketball’s 3-point shooting vs Duke defense
UNC ranks as the second-best 3-point shooting team in the country over the past six games, converting 47.8% of their attempts from beyond the arc, just behind Colorado State (48.1%), according to Bart Torvik. In the last three games, UNC has made 35 three-pointers, with fifth-year guard RJ Davis contributing nine. The reigning ACC Player of the Year has hit three treys in three consecutive games for the first time this season. Six teams have achieved double-digit 3-pointers against Duke, yet the Blue Devils won five of those contests. In their last five games, opponents shot 28 of 110 (25.4%) from 3-point range against Duke.
Elliot Cadeau turnovers, Tar Heels’ path to pulling off upset win vs Duke
In Duke’s three losses, they allowed an average of 76.3 points. Kentucky netted 10 three-pointers, took 24 free throw attempts, and scored 26 points inside the paint. Meanwhile, Kansas and Clemson focused their attacks in the paint, combining for 70 points in that area. The Tigers also took 22 free throws, which put Duke in foul trouble. UNC’s offense has been solid during their six-game winning streak, but they must minimize turnovers, particularly from point guard Elliot Cadeau, who had five of UNC’s 14 turnovers in the previous meeting with Duke. Cadeau registered 12 assists and three turnovers against Virginia Tech. The Heels will need Cadeau to perform at his best if they hope to secure an upset against the Blue Devils.
Isaiah Evans, Ian Jackson as X-factors off the bench for Duke, UNC
Duke’s Isaiah Evans and UNC’s Ian Jackson become pivotal players when they find their rhythm from long range. Serving as instant offensive sparks off the bench, both Evans and Jackson have significantly contributed to their teams due to their shooting prowess. Evans has reached double figures in four of the last five games, sinking 19 three-pointers in that time. The Fayetteville native scored three points in eight minutes during the first matchup with UNC. Conversely, Jackson has netted double-digit points in five of his last six games, making 17 3-pointers in that span, including five against Virginia Tech. After scoring eight points at Duke on February 1, Jackson needs to step up in the rematch. Both players possess the potential to shift momentum in favor of their teams.
UNC vs Duke score prediction
Duke 85, UNC 70: While the Tar Heels are peaking at the right moment, the Blue Devils are also in form. Duke’s current level of play has reached historic heights as March Madness approaches. Although UNC is in dire need of a significant victory to improve their NCAA Tournament odds, this matchup differs from the situation in 2022.
Rodd Baxley covers Duke, North Carolina, and N.C. State for The Fayetteville Observer as part of the USA TODAY Network. For more ACC coverage, follow him on X/Twitter or Bluesky: @RoddBaxley. If you have questions about these teams, reach out at [email protected].