President Trump’s recent focus on Ukraine’s critical minerals, seen as extortionist by critics, reflects a long-standing interest since his 2017 executive order on the subject. Amidst negotiations, he has proposed the U.S. take half of Ukraine’s natural resource revenues, causing pushback from Ukrainian leaders. This strategy mirrors previous ambitions regarding mineral-rich territories like Greenland and Canada, alarming figures like Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Both Trump and Biden recognize the importance of securing critical minerals amid competition with China. The recent agreement framework indicates ongoing collaboration despite concerns over perceived colonial attitudes in negotiations for resource access.
President Trump’s strong focus on Ukraine’s mineral resources seemed to arise unexpectedly.
He sent his Treasury secretary to Kyiv this month to engage with Ukraine’s leadership, subsequently increasing public pressure in a manner that many critics likened to a Mafia-style extortion tactic.
“I want security regarding the rare earth,” he declared.
However, critical minerals have been a priority for Mr. Trump since at least 2017, when he issued an executive order concerning them during his initial term. They have also captured the attention of President Joseph R. Biden Jr.
Additionally, Mr. Trump’s recent remarks about Ukraine’s resources were not the first instance in his new term where he referenced taking control of a nation’s mineral reserves.
The president has expressed interest in acquiring minerals from Greenland and Canada. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau remarked to a gathering of business leaders that Mr. Trump’s emphasis on Canada’s resources indicated his threats to annex the country were “a legitimate concern.”
Possessing mineral wealth abroad has become a fundamental foreign policy objective for Mr. Trump, leading to some of his most imperialistic statements since taking office. His approaches echo the motivations of fallen empires, where resource acquisition drove territorial expansion.
On Tuesday, after two weeks of challenging negotiations, Ukrainian and U.S. officials announced they had reached a consensus on a framework to share revenue generated from Ukraine’s critical minerals.
Critical minerals are non-fuel substances vital to energy technologies and are highly vulnerable to supply chain interruptions, according to the U.S. Energy Department. They are located globally — including in Chile, Argentina, the Chinese-controlled Tibetan plateau, and the Democratic Republic of Congo — and are crucial to both common technologies (such as electric car batteries) as well as specialized applications (like missile systems). In 2022, the U.S. Geological Survey published a list of 50 critical minerals, ranging from aluminum to zirconium.
Due to competition with China, the pursuit of critical minerals has been a significant focus for the United States for nearly a decade.
Mr. Biden, during his final overseas trip as president, visited a U.S.-supported railway in Angola, which is designed to facilitate the transportation of critical minerals to the coast for export.
Officials from his State Department previously established a coalition of allied countries to discuss forming or strengthening critical mineral supply chains outside of China, and created a forum so that mineral-rich nations could connect with potential client nations and foreign businesses about developing mines and processing facilities.
Ukraine, Greenland, and Canada were all included in these discussions. In fact, Ukraine and the United States nearly finalized an agreement last fall ensuring that Ukraine would notify the U.S. of potential projects in advance, granting American companies or those from allied nations sufficient time to bid on contracts. The State Department was also prepared to provide Ukraine with technical support regarding mapping and crafting regulations.
That approach, however, diverges from Mr. Trump’s method.
“Trump and his advisors are speaking unnecessarily,” stated Jose W. Fernandez, a key architect of the State Department’s critical minerals initiatives during the Biden administration. “These nations seek investment, but they desire partnerships, not colonial relationships.”
He added that these countries are inclined towards American financial and commercial partners because they are wary of more coercive alternatives, such as proposals from China.
Last September, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine began presenting a “victory plan” against Russia to allied governments, including Mr. Trump, who was campaigning for president; this plan offered partnerships regarding critical minerals among other initiatives.
Mr. Fernandez was prepared to finalize a memorandum of understanding last October with Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko, as per an email from the State Department sent to reporters at that time. However, on October 29, the day the signing was set, she failed to appear in Washington.
Ms. Svyrydenko later intended to sign the pact at a Ukraine reconstruction conference in Warsaw on November 13, but once again, she did not attend.
By that time, Mr. Trump had won the election, and Ukrainian officials reportedly informed U.S. diplomats that they preferred to defer the agreement until the new administration took over, according to two former U.S. officials and one Ukrainian official aware of the situation.
Ukrainian officials had already been in discussions with several foreign investors, including Ronald S. Lauder, a cosmetics heir and friend of Mr. Trump, regarding potential investments in Ukraine’s mineral sector.
Earlier this month, Mr. Zelensky expressed hesitation regarding the terms presented by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Kyiv. The proposal requested that Ukraine hand over 50% of its revenues from natural resources, including minerals, gas, and oil, in addition to earnings derived from ports and other infrastructures.
Mr. Trump also initially sought $500 billion from Ukraine, asserting that the U.S. deserved compensation for the billions in military aid and budget assistance provided during the Biden administration, even though that sum constituted a mere fraction of annual federal spending. Critics labeled Mr. Trump’s demands as extreme, colonialist, and mercantilist.
U.S. officials later eased some of these demands while still pressuring Ms. Svyrydenko and other Ukrainian negotiators to finalize an agreement. The present draft framework includes a vague mention of security guarantees for Ukraine, which Mr. Zelensky has stated are crucial to preventing any new Russian invasion following a future cease-fire to end the ongoing conflict. Mr. Trump remarked on Wednesday that he does not intend to provide “very much” in terms of guarantees.
“Many nations regard their natural resources as central to their national sovereignty and potential for economic development,” commented Abigail Hunter, executive director of the Center for Critical Minerals Strategy at SAFE, an energy security research organization. “This renders negotiations on critical minerals particularly sensitive, with governments fearing foreign domination or exploitation.”
China has undertaken a yearslong initiative to attain global leadership in the extraction and processing of critical minerals. Concurrently, the United States has been heavily reliant on importing significant quantities of critical minerals for both commercial and military applications.
A report released this month by the Center for Strategic and International Studies highlighted that the United States imports between 50% to 100% of each of the 41 out of the 50 critical minerals identified by the U.S. Geological Survey. China dominates the production of 29 of these minerals.
Moreover, “China has consistently demonstrated its willingness to weaponize these minerals,” the report noted, noting actions such as imposing export controls and bans on numerous raw minerals over the past two years. Additionally, it reported that China currently refines between 40% to 90% of the world’s supply of rare earth elements, graphite, lithium, cobalt, and copper.
The executive order signed by Mr. Trump in 2017 aimed to “ensure secure and reliable” access to critical mineral supplies. The directive called for the interior secretary to compile a list of these minerals, leading to the U.S. Geological Survey’s assessments published in 2018 and again four years later.
Some foreign leaders have attempted to leverage this narrative. For instance, Ashraf Ghani, the former president of Afghanistan, appealed to Mr. Trump about his country’s mineral wealth to persuade the American president to maintain U.S. military presence as the government contended with a Taliban insurgency. However, Mr. Ghani’s efforts proved fruitless.
Yet, minerals remained a priority for Mr. Trump.
In September 2020, he signed an executive order urging agencies to tackle the nation’s “undue reliance” on “foreign adversaries” for critical minerals, particularly targeting China.
The global supply chain disruptions during the coronavirus pandemic intensified concerns within the U.S. government. Mr. Biden followed suit by issuing an executive order in early 2021 that directed the defense secretary to assess risks associated with the importation of critical minerals from abroad.
The following year, Mr. Fernandez, then the State Department’s leading economic official, oversaw the establishment of the Minerals Security Partnership, comprising 15 nations aimed at broadening global supply chains for critical minerals. The Trump administration and the Indian government referenced this partnership in a joint statement during Mr. Trump’s recent meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, both nations collaborating within the initiative.
Last year, the State Department formed a corresponding forum with 15 producer nations, including Ukraine and Greenland, seeking investors to bolster their industries.
“Ultimately, Ukraine has been appealing for investments for quite some time,” Mr. Fernandez remarked.
So has Greenland.
The forum convened a meeting in November in Nuuk, Greenland, where companies proposed seven projects to around 100 potential investors connected via video conferencing.
During his first term, Mr. Trump developed an obsession with the prospect of purchasing Greenland, a notion inspired by Mr. Lauder, the cosmetics heir.
Additionally, another Trump business associate, Howard Lutnick, who serves as the president’s commerce secretary, has connections to a mining initiative in Greenland, stemming from an investment made by his firm, Cantor Fitzgerald, in New York-based Critical Metals Corp., as disclosed in securities filings reviewed by The New York Times.
Several high-ranking Trump officials were analyzing the strategic challenges related to China and critical minerals even prior to the commencement of this administration.
Last July, Marco Rubio, then a senator from Florida, co-sponsored a bill addressing the issue. Following his appointment as secretary of state last month, he remarked in a cable that “energy dominance” would be a significant focus. It seems unlikely that Mr. Rubio and other Trump representatives will approach discussions regarding minerals as a means to mitigate the climate crisis or accelerate the transition to clean energy, unlike the Biden administration officials who had previously done so.
On a recent visit to the Dominican Republic, Mr. Rubio discussed the potential of the country’s rare earth minerals being utilized for weapons systems and advanced technologies.
“Having an ally in the hemisphere with access to these elements is highly advantageous,” he remarked. “We aim to assist in developing the Dominican Republic’s wealth.”
Constant Méheut contributed reporting from Kyiv, and Michael Crowley from Washington.