U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated that tariffs imposed by President Trump on Canada, Mexico, and China could be lifted if these countries demonstrate reductions in fentanyl trafficking and related overdose deaths. Lutnick emphasized the need for measurable outcomes, noting that fentanyl-related deaths in the U.S. have not significantly declined. However, preliminary CDC data shows a 24% decrease in overdose deaths, including a 30% drop in fatalities from synthetic opioids like fentanyl. Experts attribute this reduction to public health initiatives, such as the increased availability of naloxone and buprenorphine, rather than changes in border policies.
Howard Lutnick, the U.S. Secretary of Commerce, stated in an interview on Tuesday that the tariffs imposed by President Trump on Canada, Mexico, and China could potentially be removed if those nations could demonstrate to Mr. Trump that they were curbing the flow of fentanyl and decreasing the number of fatal fentanyl overdoses in the U.S.
“You’ve seen it: There has not been a statistically significant reduction in deaths in America,” Mr. Lutnick mentioned on CNBC. “It’s quite straightforward. We informed them that it was based on outcomes.”
However, fentanyl-related overdose deaths have shown a substantial decline over the past year, according to preliminary data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which the Trump administration highlighted just last week.
From September 2023 to September 2024, approximately 87,000 individuals died from drug overdoses, which represents a nearly 24 percent decrease compared to the same timeframe the previous year, as per the latest C.D.C. report. About 55,000 of these deaths were linked to synthetic opioids such as fentanyl, marking a decline of around 30 percent.
Data on overdoses is often delayed by several months, as states validate deaths and relay that information to the C.D.C., which subsequently releases national statistics. In recent weeks, Mr. Trump has made claims without substantiation that the official numbers significantly underreport the reality.
“We lose 300,000 people a year to fentanyl,” Mr. Trump remarked during a cabinet meeting last week. “Not 100, not 95, not 60, like what you’ve read. You know, this has been reported for years. In my estimation, over the past couple of years, we lost an average of nearly 300,000 lives, and families have been devastated.”
Experts in drug policy have indicated that the reduction in fentanyl overdoses is more closely related to public health initiatives rather than changes in border enforcement. During the Biden administration, naloxone, a medication that reverses overdoses, was approved for over-the-counter sales and became increasingly accessible. Federal grants enabled communities to stockpile this lifesaving drug.
Buprenorphine, a treatment for opioid addiction, has also become more readily available for some users following the easing of prescription restrictions by Congress in 2022.
While fentanyl is responsible for the majority of fatal overdoses, other illicit substances significantly contribute as well, including stimulants such as methamphetamine and cocaine, and xylazine, an animal tranquilizer that can sedate individuals for extended periods and is not susceptible to overdose reversal treatments.