The Dallas Mavericks face significant challenges after star guard Kyrie Irving was diagnosed with an ACL tear, worsening their injury woes. The team, missing key players like Luka Doncic and Anthony Davis, has struggled without Irving, going 3-7 in games without both him and Doncic. While they currently sit in 10th place, their chances for postseason success are dwindling, particularly with the crowded Western Conference play-in race. The Mavericks may need to consider trading one of their centers to bolster their roster, especially as Irving’s recovery could extend into the next season. Meanwhile, the Portland Trail Blazers are showing improvement, potentially threatening the Mavericks’ play-in position.
The Dallas Mavericks, facing significant injury setbacks since their strong 19-10 start, experienced their most serious loss this season on Tuesday, as reported by ESPN’s Shams Charania. Star guard Kyrie Irving has been diagnosed with an ACL tear resulting from an injury sustained early in Monday’s loss against the Sacramento Kings.
With Luka Doncic traded to the Los Angeles Lakers a month ago and All-Star Anthony Davis currently sidelined due to an adductor strain, the Mavericks were relying heavily on Irving to maintain their offensive performance. Additionally, the team is missing centers Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II, while forward P.J. Washington is also dealing with a shorter-term injury, leaving only Irving and Klay Thompson as the remaining regular starters available on Monday.
Irving’s absence will extend into the 2025-26 season, creating challenges for a team that aimed to contend for a championship with Davis after reaching the 2024 NBA Finals alongside Doncic and Irving.
For a team that entered this season with championship aspirations, the Mavericks now face a tough path to the postseason, likely needing to go through the Western Conference play-in tournament. However, their injury issues threaten their chances of missing out entirely. The silver lining? The 10th-place Mavericks currently hold a 3.5-game lead for the final play-in spot, ahead of other teams struggling with their own challenges. The Phoenix Suns are enduring a turbulent season with Kevin Durant at the center of trade discussions, while the San Antonio Spurs have encountered their own injury difficulties with Victor Wembanyama sidelined for the remainder of the season due to deep vein thrombosis.
Let’s take a closer look at what lies ahead for the Mavericks and analyze expectations for the Western play-in race, which now unexpectedly includes a once-struggling team that has become one of the hottest in the league.
How effective is Dallas without Kyrie?
This season, in the 10 games where neither Doncic nor Irving has played, the Mavericks have posted a 3-7 record with a minus-8.5 point differential. This figure was inflated by a 43-point loss to the league-leading Cleveland Cavaliers right after the surprising Doncic trade; however, in nine other games without both guards, Dallas has been outscored by a total of 42 points. As expected, the Mavericks have tightened their defense with Irving off the court, but they are struggling to score. Their offensive rating suffers a decline of over eight points per 100 possessions without him, according to NBA Advanced Stats.
The Mavericks constructed their roster with the intention of having either Doncic or Irving on the court at all times, resulting in limited ballhandling and playmaking options elsewhere. Spencer Dinwiddie is now stepping up into a pivotal role as Dallas’ primary point guard, though he lacks the efficient scoring ability of Doncic and Irving.
Now would be an ideal opportunity for third-year guard Jaden Hardy to expand his role. Hardy averages 19 points per 36 minutes and is Dallas’ most athletic player on the perimeter, but his playing time has varied, and he exited Monday’s game with an ankle injury. This may lead the Mavericks to rely on two-way player Brandon Williams as their backup point guard in the short term. Additionally, Dallas won’t be able to fill its open 15th roster spot until the final week of the season due to being close to a hard cap at the lower luxury-tax apron triggered by offseason transactions.
The silver lining for Mavericks supporters is that Davis may soon return from the adductor strain he sustained in his debut with Dallas, providing additional scoring support. Davis is slated for a reevaluation later this week regarding his recovery. With Davis filling the significant void at center left by injuries to both Gafford and Lively, the Mavericks can hope to refocus on defense and at least maintain a .500 record down the stretch.
Looking forward, Dallas’ surplus of quality big men may create challenging decisions in the offseason. Since recovery from ACL tears typically demands at least nine months for NBA players and often over a year, it’s unrealistic to expect Irving back at the start of the 2025-26 season. Considering this, along with the team likely lacking access to its midlevel exception to sign free agents beyond minimum salaries, the Mavericks might need to explore trading one of their centers for a ballhandler to support Irving.
One play-in race splits into two
Monday night’s encounter with the Kings was significant, as both Dallas and Sacramento are part of a tightly-contested five-team cluster from sixth to 10th in the Western standings, separated by just a game and a half. That has essentially shifted into a four-team contest for the last guaranteed playoff position, alongside another battle for the final play-in slot.
Starting with the team at the top, the Golden State Warriors, currently sixth and boasting an 8-1 record with Jimmy Butler back, are the obvious favorites to dodge the play-in tournament (with a 49% chance in simulations), while the Minnesota Timberwolves (33%) and LA Clippers (23%) are still very much in the hunt. The Kings, projected to win nearly two fewer games than any of those squads, appear destined for the ninth spot.
This leaves the race for the 10th position as one to pay close attention to. Historically, finishing as the lowest seed in the play-in hasn’t proved particularly rewarding. Teams ranked 10th have yet to win two road games to reach the playoffs in the four years of the current play-in format, and only two out of eight teams that finished 10th have managed to avoid elimination in their opening play-in game. Projections using ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) already indicated that the Mavericks were the most likely of the five teams to settle for 10th due to their injuries. Without Irving, they are now projected to finish in the top six in fewer than 1% of simulations.
There’s an additional two games of difference in projections between Sacramento and Dallas, creating potential for a team to leapfrog the Mavericks and secure the 10th spot in the West. Fortunately for Dallas, the two teams most likely to compete for that spot — the Suns and Spurs — appear unable to make that kind of leap.
The Suns, who were three games over .500 at the beginning of February, have faltered as trade rumors surrounding Durant intensified before the Feb. 6 deadline. Phoenix has recorded a 4-11 record since early February and stands at 2-8 over their last 10 outings. Despite still having a 20% chance of making the play-in according to BPI simulations, the projections can’t account for the poor morale enveloping Phoenix.
Conversely, Wembanyama’s absence has hampered San Antonio’s push for the play-in. The Spurs have gone 2-5 since he was sidelined during the All-Star break, suffering two road defeats to the injury-riddled New Orleans Pelicans. Due to Wembanyama’s significance, BPI ranks San Antonio as the weakest of the teams vying for a play-in spot based on their current lineup.
Can Portland stage a comeback?
The Portland Trail Blazers are the one team outside the current Western play-in positions that is trending upward. After beginning the season with a 13-28 record, Portland has recently turned things around, going 15-6 over their last 21 games and joining the play-in race. Current BPI projections rate this version of the Blazers higher than both the Mavericks and Spurs, although they still have just an 8% chance of making the play-in.
However, Portland faces two significant hurdles in pursuing a postseason berth for the first time since 2021. First, they have considerable ground to cover in the standings. Currently four games behind Dallas, the Mavericks also hold the head-to-head tiebreaker after winning the season series 3-1. To surpass the Mavericks, Portland would need to win five more games than Dallas over the remaining 20 games.
The second challenge for the Blazers is a more demanding schedule to finish the season. According to BPI, only the Suns have a harder remaining schedule than Portland, while Dallas’ upcoming games rank nearer to the middle of the difficulty spectrum. The Blazers have four more contests against the league’s top three teams, including trips to Boston and Oklahoma City this week to conclude a road trip. If Portland can hang in there until the end of March, their schedule in April appears more favorable.
In April, Portland will face five teams with below-.500 records to start off the month before ending with home games against the Warriors and Lakers, who may already have their playoff positions secured by the final weekend. The mere possibility of the Blazers reaching the postseason is remarkable, considering how aimless they seemed earlier in the season. The development of their young players, highlighted by forwards Deni Avdija and Toumani Camara and notable progress from Scoot Henderson in his second season, provides optimism for the team’s future.