Severe storms are forecasted across the Upper Midwest and Plains, with risks including tornadoes, high winds, large hail, and flash flooding. Recent reports indicated tornadoes in New Mexico and significant hail in Texas. The storm system will escalate from Monday afternoon, affecting areas from Minnesota to Texas, particularly Nebraska, Iowa, and Kansas. Notable severe threats include strong tornadoes and damaging winds. On Tuesday, additional severe weather is anticipated from the eastern Great Lakes to northern Texas. Residents should prepare by knowing safe locations and having multiple ways to receive severe weather alerts. Regular updates are advisable.
Severe Storms Anticipated in Upper Midwest This Monday
A prolonged severe weather threat will persist as April draws to a close. A wave of severe thunderstorms is set to impact the Plains, Midwest, South, and parts of the East, posing hazards such as multiple tornadoes, damaging straight-line winds, substantial hail, and flash flooding.
On Saturday evening, several tornadoes touched down in New Mexico, including one near Roswell. Additionally, hail the size of golf balls to tennis balls was reported in Pecos, Texas.
Take a look at the current location of the storms, along with any active watches or warnings.
Current Radar, Watches, and Warnings
(This image illustrates the current radar data, along with any issued watches or warnings.)
Forecast Timing and Threats
-Overnight into early Monday: The storm system behind this multi-day severe weather pattern may initiate its first storms in the High Plains, spanning from the Dakotas to western Texas. Central Nebraska appears to be the most probable area for severe thunderstorms. While severe weather activity is expected to be isolated, any supercell storms that develop may deliver significant hail, high winds, and a potential tornado threat.
-Monday to Monday Night: The severe weather risk escalates on Monday as the storm progresses eastward, particularly in the afternoon and evening. Threat levels for severe weather stretch from Minnesota and Wisconsin down to Texas, with southeastern Minnesota to Iowa, northern Missouri, and eastern Kansas posing the highest risk. This includes urban centers like Minneapolis, Des Moines, Iowa, and Kansas City.
Tornadoes, potentially strong (EF2 or greater), alongside large hail and harmful winds, are among the anticipated threats.
On Monday afternoon, storms might originate as supercells before evolving into a squall line featuring embedded tornadoes by evening.
Monday’s Severe Weather Forecast
(The shaded areas on the map above indicate the likelihood of severe thunderstorms, according to NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center. Not all categories will apply to the severe weather risk for a specific day.)
-Tuesday: A wide area encompassing the eastern Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, mid-Mississippi Valley, Oklahoma, and northern Texas may experience severe weather. Wind damage, hail, and a potential isolated tornado threat could occur across these regions, affecting areas from Dallas-Fort Worth to St. Louis, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh. Additionally, the risk of flash flooding due to heavy rain also looms.
Tuesday’s Severe Weather Forecast
(The shaded regions on the map above illustrate the potential for severe thunderstorms, according to NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center. Keep in mind that not all categories will apply for the severe weather risk on any specific day.)
-Wednesday: The frontal system responsible for this bout of severe weather may stall over the southern Plains by midweek, leading to more severe thunderstorms across parts of north Texas into the Arklatex on Wednesday or Wednesday night.
Be aware that these threat levels and impacted areas may evolve, so it’s essential to monitor updates on weather.com and through The Weather Channel app for early-week forecasts.
Recommended Actions
-First: Identify the location you will head to in the event that a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning is announced, whether at home, in an apartment, a manufactured home, at work, or while driving.
-Next: Ensure you have multiple ways to receive watches and warnings, such as a NOAA Weather Radio, alerts on your smartphone, and local media outlets like radio or TV.
-Do Not Rely Solely On: An outdoor siren may not effectively alert you indoors or wake you at night. Tornado sirens are designed to warn those outside to find shelter, and you might be situated too far from a siren to hear it.
Click this link for additional resources on preparedness tips for severe weather now and in the future.
A Typical Spring Weather Scenario
-A significant dip in the jet stream will descend into the Plains and Midwest from the West at the beginning of the week.
-These strong upper-level winds, along with the associated surface low-pressure system, will combine with abundant warm, humid air flowing from the Gulf.
-This combination of factors is typical for springtime in these regions and generally leads to the formation of thunderstorms resulting in varying levels of severe weather.
Severe Weather Conditions Expected Early Week
Chris Dolce has been a senior digital meteorologist with weather.com for nearly 15 years, having started his career with The Weather Channel in the early 2000s.