Top Republicans are worried about their candidate, Randy Fine, in a special election for Florida’s 6th Congressional District, prompting President Trump’s team to intervene. Despite being in a deep-red area, Fine has significantly less funding than Democratic challenger Josh Weil, who has outraised him nearly 10-to-1. Trump hosted tele-rallies to support Fine amid concerns that a close result could signal anti-Republican sentiment. Fine’s polarizing politics, criticism from GOP leaders, and a lack of early campaign effort have also raised alarms. As election day approaches, both parties stress the potential implications for party momentum in upcoming elections.
CNN
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Leading Republicans have grown increasingly worried about the underwhelming performance of their GOP House candidate in an approaching special election in Florida, prompting President Donald Trump’s team and House GOP leadership to step in directly.
A senior adviser to Trump contacted state Senator Randy Fine, stressing the importance of getting his campaign organized and active on the airwaves, as reported by a White House source. Republican leaders were even more straightforward. House GOP campaign chief Rep. Richard Hudson and House Majority Whip Tom Emmer both urged Fine to “get his sh*t together,” according to two GOP sources involved closely with the race.
Weeks later, Republicans are preparing for a surprisingly close outcome on Tuesday in Florida’s heavily Republican 6th Congressional District, where their nominee has been significantly outfunded and risks underperforming relative to the president’s results in November.
To reflect these worries, Trump participated in two tele-rallies on Thursday evening to rally support for Fine, as well as for GOP candidate Jimmy Patronis in Florida’s 1st Congressional District.
“We’re just days away from a crucial special election taking place in your state on Tuesday, April 1, and I’m asking you to get out and vote for a true American patriot, someone I’ve come to know very well, Randy Fine,” Trump stated during the tele-rally for Fine.
Additionally, Trump addressed the increasing scrutiny surrounding the two races during the other rally for Patronis. “The whole country’s actually watching this one. It’s very significant,” Trump remarked.
Both parties concur that Fine is likely to win the special election for the 6th District seat, which became vacant after the president appointed former Rep. Mike Waltz as his national security adviser. Waltz had won reelection in November by a margin of 33 points.
However, Democrat Josh Weil, a teacher, has outpaced Fine in fundraising nearly 10-to-1 and has conducted a far more aggressive campaign, linking Fine to the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency and possible cuts to Medicaid and Social Security.
Hudson, chair of the House Republicans’ campaign arm, acknowledged the strength of Fine as a candidate but conceded that he could have begun airing advertisements sooner.
“I wish he had started a few weeks earlier, but we have many people on the ground working to get out the vote, so I remain optimistic,” Hudson expressed to CNN.
Fine declined to comment on his campaign when reached by phone.
Republicans maintain that a victory is a victory, regardless of the margin. They claim the challenge lies in the disparity in motivation—specifically, how enraged voters from both parties are following last year’s election.
“Republicans are celebrating from their November win, while Democrats are sharpening their pitchforks,” remarked a senior Republican operative closely involved in the Florida campaign. “The Democrats are highly engaged and are eager to claim any success they can achieve.”
Nevertheless, Republicans are concerned—and Democrats hold hope—that a closer-than-expected result will indicate that Republicans’ agenda in Washington lacks voter backing. Democratic strategists argue that if Weil can come within 10-15 points of Fine, it will show that the party’s base is energized and voters are becoming discontented with Trump’s agenda.
“I don’t believe they are worried about losing the seat,” stated Beth Matuga, a Florida-based Democratic strategist, regarding Republicans. “Their concern lies in the potential for this special election to serve as a bellwether and rekindle Democrat enthusiasm in Florida, even if they do suffer a defeat.”
Republicans are also defending an open seat in Florida’s 1st District, where Democrat Gay Valimont is contending against Patronis for the position previously held by Rep. Matt Gaetz.
A candidate-specific issue
Fine, who served four terms in the state House before being elected to the state Senate in November, has been a divisive figure in Florida politics. He has advocated for the removal of “non-Americans” who support “Muslim terror” and has endorsed the Parental Rights in Education Act, often referred to as the “Don’t Say Gay” bill by its critics.
He has also had conflicts with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. During the 2024 GOP presidential primary, Fine switched his endorsement from DeSantis to Trump, asserting that the governor had done “almost nothing” to tackle antisemitism. DeSantis dismissed the criticism as “pure politics.”
When asked about the election this week, DeSantis took a shot at Fine, predicting that the senator’s performance on Tuesday would be a “way underperformance” compared to his own victory margin in the 2022 governor’s race or Trump’s in 2024.
“They will attempt to deflect responsibility to President Trump,” DeSantis told reporters this week. “That is not a reflection of President Trump; it’s a reflection of the specific candidate running in that race.”
A similar notion has resonated on Capitol Hill, where senior House Republicans largely fear next Tuesday’s contest could be closer than anticipated but still express confidence in a victory.
For weeks, GOP leaders have become increasingly frustrated with Fine. They argue that the Florida Republican has not run a serious campaign from the outset and has been particularly sluggish in fundraising and media presence, according to three individuals familiar with their discussions.
“Do people wish Randy had approached this with more seriousness from the beginning? Absolutely. But I haven’t yet contemplated the possibility of him losing,” one senior GOP operative involved in the race told CNN.
Another senior GOP operative predicted Fine would ultimately secure a win but characterized his campaign as “a disaster.”
Meanwhile, House GOP leaders have worked to set realistic expectations for next Tuesday’s special within their own anxious conference. At a closed-door meeting on Tuesday, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise warned members it could be a tighter race than expected, partly due to lackluster fundraising efforts from the GOP side, advising that no one should anticipate a large victory, as recounted by a person who attended.
Rep. Ron Estes, a Kansas Republican who won his own special election in 2017, also chimed in to provide a political reality check for off-year special elections.
Nonetheless, the House GOP campaign arm has maintained a largely hands-off approach in this race, given its strong Republican tilt. Neither party has invested money into the race.
“Randy Fine will serve as a Member of Congress,” assured Maureen O’Toole, a spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee, in a statement to CNN. “Everything else is just noise.”
Senior House Democrats are also closely monitoring the race, with at least one group conducting polling to assess their party’s support as the election approaches, according to a person familiar with the discussions. However, there is no expectation among high-ranking leaders that the race will be competitive.
“If he overperforms by 5, and you apply that to the rest of the battlefield, you win 15 seats,” this individual noted, while acknowledging Weil, the Democratic candidate, faces his own operational challenges—chiefly high consultant spending with minimal investment in advertisements.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries asserted on Monday that Democrats would perform strongly in both Florida special elections because voters are rejecting the Republican Party’s agenda, countering the notion that Trump has a mandate. He cited other local special elections where Democratic candidates garnered a higher percentage of the vote than Harris did in November.
“What I can assert, with a high degree of confidence, is that the Democratic candidate in both of these Florida special elections will significantly overperform, indicating that the Republicans are on the defensive and that Democrats are poised to regain control of the House of Representatives next year,” Jeffries stated during a press conference on Monday.
Central to Republican concerns has been the substantial fundraising success of the Democratic candidates. In the 6th District, Weil has raised approximately $9.5 million compared to Fine’s $1 million and has outspent him by nearly $8.2 million to Fine’s total of $895,000. Fine reported only $93,000 in cash as of March 13 on his pre-election FEC filing, indicating a severely depleted campaign fund.
Weil attributed his fundraising success to a commitment to safeguarding Social Security and Medicare as well as reducing costs. “I appreciate the hundreds of thousands of Floridians and everyday Americans who continue to believe in a brighter future,” he stated in a message to CNN.
The two Democratic candidates have not received substantial external support. The Democratic National Committee has made a minor but undisclosed investment in the race, and Chairman Ken Martin announced on Thursday that he would campaign in the 6th District the weekend prior to the election.
Weil and Valimont have conducted joint advertisements that capitalize on Musk’s prominence within the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency, featuring images of Musk wielding a chainsaw during a conservative event last month as he celebrated significant federal spending cuts. “Elon is shredding our democracy,” proclaims the opening line of one of the digital ads.
Both campaigns have faced scrutiny over how they raised and spent their substantial fundraising amounts. Each Democratic candidate has collaborated with Key Lime Strategies and Media, a consulting firm that receives a 25% commission on the money it helps to raise. Democratic Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and DNC Vice Chair David Hogg have both condemned the firm for utilizing their images in fundraising efforts without their consent.
Fine’s campaign has also criticized Weil for his expenditures, which include payments to musicians and entertainers and over $50,000 on a multi-room Airbnb that served as both an office and residence for Weil, who does not currently reside in the district.
Jackson McMillan, CEO of Key Lime Strategies and Media and Weil’s finance director, defended his fundraising practices, emphasizing that the firm’s fee structure is disclosed on its website.
“Randy Fine is attempting to undermine our fundraising efforts because he has been neglecting his own campaign, running a weak race, and is now in a precarious position,” McMillan stated in a message to CNN.
Wendy Garcia, Weil’s campaign manager, explained in a statement to CNN that the rental property allows multiple campaign team members to have a presence in the district while also lowering accommodation and office costs.
Meanwhile, Fine has experienced a rise in external spending in his favor during the final weeks of the campaign.
Musk’s super PAC entered the races this week, revealing on Tuesday that it would spend approximately $20,000 on texting services shared equally between support for both Republican candidates. The Republican Jewish Coalition’s political action committee has allocated over $94,000 to the race, as per recent FEC data.
Advertising expenditures for the 6th District race have increased as Election Day approaches. Advertisers have collectively spent over $7.7 million on ads, with Republicans outspending Democrats approximately $4.4 million to $3.4 million. In the 1st District race, Democrats lead in advertising spending, roughly $3.2 million to $2.1 million, according to AdImpact.
No major outside organizations have intervened to support the two Democratic candidates with television advertising; however, several GOP groups have targeted the race with seven-figure investments, including Defend American Jobs, backed by various cryptocurrency interests and veteran investors Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz, along with another entity, Conservative Fighters PAC, which has less transparent funding sources.
Both groups have allocated hundreds of thousands of dollars during the closing period of the race to run TV ads aimed at harnessing Trump’s political clout, informing voters of his endorsements and especially looking to bolster Fine’s chances.
“Florida voters, President Donald J. Trump has an urgent message: President Trump needs Randy Fine in Congress,” one advertisement claims. “Republicans, President Trump needs your support on April 1st! Vote for Trump-endorsed businessman Randy Fine,” states another ad.
This story has been updated with new reporting.
CNN’s Manu Raju contributed to this report.