On March 7, Casper Ruud faces Marcos Giron in the BNP Paribas Open second round at Indian Wells. Giron recently won against Nikoloz Basilashvili, but Ruud, a three-time Grand Slam runner-up, presents a tougher challenge. Ruud holds a superior 82.0% hold rate to Giron’s 79.9% and has a higher break percentage. His powerful topspin forehand allows him to control points effectively. Ruud previously defeated Giron 6-1, 6-0 under similar conditions. While Ruud’s odds at -172 might seem steep, they reflect a strong probability of his victory, making him a solid pick to advance in the tournament.
On Friday, March 7, Casper Ruud will face Marcos Giron in the second round of the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells. Giron is coming off a strong 7-5, 7-6 (3) win against Nikoloz Basilashvili. However, defeating a player prone to making mistakes like Basilashvili is not the same as overcoming a three-time Grand Slam finalist. Therefore, even at enhanced odds, I’m backing Ruud to outplay Giron at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden.
Giron has shown resilience on slower hard courts throughout his career, particularly last March. Nevertheless, this matchup strongly favors Ruud. In the past 52 weeks, Ruud’s hold percentage of 82.0% slightly exceeds Giron’s 79.9%. Additionally, Ruud’s break percentage of 23.6% is also superior to Giron’s 19.9% during that period. Moreover, Ruud’s forehand will serve as his most significant weapon on the court, which isn’t just about hitting winners. Ruud can unleash topspin-heavy forehands all over the court, enabling him to dominate points and maneuver opponents out of position. I’ll choose that advantage over Giron’s occasional ability to hit a flattened forehand hard.
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Additionally, it’s important to mention that Giron isn’t the type of player who can exploit Ruud’s relatively weaker backhand, as his opponents tend to target the American’s backhand in a similar manner.
Ruud also defeated Giron in somewhat similar conditions last year with a commanding 6-1, 6-0 scoreline in Los Cabos, another tournament played on a slower hard court. While Ruud has yet to advance beyond the quarterfinals in the desert, a player with his clay-court skills should eventually adapt to these courts. With a favorable draw, he isn’t in the same half as Carlos Alcaraz or Novak Djokovic, positioning Ruud for a potential deep run.
It’s worth noting that while -172 odds may seem steep, it represents an implied probability of just 63.24% that Ruud will secure the victory. This feels relatively low given the historical advantages for Ruud in this matchup. Thus, while many equate “value” with underdogs or plus-money odds, I contend that this scenario offers a solid value bet.
Pick: Ruud ML (-172)