Champions Trophy 2024/25, PAK vs IND 5th Match, Group A Match Preview

Champions Trophy 2024/25, PAK vs IND 5th Match, Group A Match Preview

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Pakistan faces a critical moment as they host the ICC Champions Trophy for the first time in 29 years, but their chances of survival are bleak after a heavy loss to New Zealand. To advance, they must defeat India on a slow Dubai pitch, where India has the advantage of experience and spinners. The complex dynamic between both teams reflects a history of rivalry, with Pakistan feeling isolated in cricket. Despite India’s recent dominance, Pakistan hopes to leverage favorable pitch conditions. Key players include Virat Kohli, struggling against legspin, and promising Pakistani batsman Salman Agha, who shines in middle overs.

The Situation: Pakistan’s Struggle for Existence

Pakistan is in dire need of a miracle. Through no fault of the players, they are isolated in the realm of international cricket, marking this as the first ICC event they’ve hosted in 29 years. Just three days into the Champions Trophy, following a heavy defeat against New Zealand, they are faced with the possibility of being eliminated from a tournament they anticipated for three decades.
To remain in contention, Pakistan must overcome their bitter rivals on a slow and weary pitch where India has already secured a win in one match and boasts a squad of five spinners. Due to circumstances beyond their control, Pakistan has to leave their own event and travel to Dubai, as India refused to travel to Pakistan for undisclosed reasons from both their board and government. It’s understandable that Pakistan feels besieged, especially when they struggle to even have their nation’s name featured prominently in the official broadcast branding. During such critical times, any omission can appear to be nefarious, however unfounded that may be.

This situation induces an unusual tension between the two teams. Despite the political backdrop, players display mutual respect and civility, which frustrates those who would prefer to see animosity manifest on the field. The competitiveness might stem from the noticeable divide between the two teams.

As often occurs with an isolated team, Pakistan, once a pioneer of innovation in Asia, now lags significantly, especially in limited-overs cricket. Meanwhile, India, having evolved from a nation of accumulators to one that continuously innovates, is striving towards the future. In an era where the ICC designs schedules to ensure at least one prominent India-Pakistan match, it’s telling that Pakistan has secured victories only in 2017 and 2021 since 2011.

Beyond the historical pattern of wins, Pakistan holds onto a glimmer of hope regarding the conditions. The slow pitches in Dubai, recently utilized for the ILT20, demand a traditional playing style that could somewhat mitigate India’s advantage in big-hitting during the middle overs. With no dew to influence play—thanks to the 1 PM starts—the toss becomes crucial. In comparable situations last year, Sri Lanka triumphed over India in a bilateral series at home with an unremarkable spin attack. They won the tosses, opted to bat first, and achieved scores in the mid-200s in every match. Pakistan aspires for a similar outcome, although India will lean on past lessons learned.

Pakistan LLWLW (last five completed ODIs, most recent first)
India WWWWL

Key Players: Virat Kohli and Salman Agha

Virat Kohli has been dismissed by leg-spin in each of the last five matches he faced such bowling, resulting in five dismissals for just 21 runs in the last 46 balls of leg-spin he encountered in ODIs. While Pakistan may lack a traditional leg-spinner, Abrar Ahmed possesses the ability to spin the ball both ways like a leg-spinner. In these scenarios, batters need to maneuver singles without taking risks, a skill that might become crucial for India in these matches. Will we see the vintage Kohli?
On the other hand, Salman Agha has emerged as a beacon of hope for Pakistan in recent ODI outings. Since 2024, he has tallied the second-most runs for Pakistan in middle-overs: 325, at an impressive average of 65.00 and a strike rate of 88.07. Pakistan will rely heavily on his contributions during the middle overs as India attempts to tighten their grip with slower bowling options.

Team Update: Imam or Usman to Replace Fakhar?

Imam-ul-Haq has joined the squad as the replacement for the dynamic opener, Fakhar Zaman. Usman Khan stands as another reserve batter; however, should he debut in ODIs, he will have to adapt to an unconventional role, given that he typically bats at No. 4 in List A cricket.

Pakistan (likely lineup): 1. Imam-ul-Haq, 2. Babar Azam, 3. Saud Shakeel, 4. Mohammad Rizwan (captain, wicketkeeper), 5. Salman Agha, 6. Tayyab Tahir, 7. Khushdil Shah, 8. Shaheen Shah Afridi, 9. Naseem Shah, 10. Haris Rauf, 11. Abrar Ahmed

India, on the other hand, sees no need to alter their combinations or personnel.

India (likely lineup): 1. Rohit Sharma (captain), 2. Shubman Gill, 3. Virat Kohli, 4. Shreyas Iyer, 5. KL Rahul (wicketkeeper), 6. Hardik Pandya, 7. Ravindra Jadeja, 8. Axar Patel, 9. Harshit Rana, 10. Mohammed Shami, 11. Kuldeep Yadav

In their opening match against Bangladesh, India aimed to field first but, considering how the pitch slowed and the absence of dew, no team is likely to make that blunder in Dubai again. Expect teams to maximize the powerplay before middle overs tighten their approach. It’s hard to predict a change in trend on surfaces recently utilized for an entire T20 tournament.

Statistics and Insights: India Towers Over Pakistan

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