Champions Trophy 2024/25, NZ vs SA 2nd Semi-Final Match Preview

South Africa and New Zealand, both seeking their first World Cup titles, are set for a knockout clash in the semi-final. Historically, these teams have faced significant pressure, with South Africa aiming to avoid disappointment ahead of the 2027 World Cup, co-hosted with Zimbabwe and Namibia. Both teams boast strong batting line-ups in favorable conditions for scoring runs, making for an anticipated high-scoring match. Key players include David Miller, potentially in his last ODI tournament, and Kane Williamson, who has excelled against South Africa. The outcome may hinge on bowling strategies, particularly in spin and pace.

Overview: Anticipation Surrounds SA vs NZ Clash

Here we go again. South Africa and New Zealand, arguably the two top teams yet to secure a World Cup title, face off in a knockout encounter. Both nations have held this trophy dating back to when it was known as the ICC Knockout, which had a different level of significance in the global landscape. Thus, while winning this won’t diminish their quest for the ultimate prize, it will serve as a valuable distraction until 2027 when South Africa co-hosts the event alongside Zimbabwe and Namibia.

South Africa is quietly aware that they are building towards that goal, yet the constant pressure to return home with a trophy rather than disappointment looms large. This represents yet another opportunity. New Zealand, having come so close to claiming the trophy at the 2019 World Cup, also carries emotional scars but seems to bear them with less burden. Perhaps their smaller population and fewer social divides contribute to their resilience; or perhaps they just excel at keeping calm. These questions will be worth contemplating later this week when one of these teams reaches the final against a yet-to-be-named opponent at an undisclosed venue. For now, both teams are likely pleased with the knockout stage they are facing.

Competing against one another instead of India or Australia appears to enhance their chances of reaching the final. Playing in Pakistan, despite both teams traveling from Dubai at different times on Monday, seems to favor them as well. The conditions are favorable for high scoring, with both teams capable of setting substantial totals, indicating that fans are in for a high-scoring match. Their bowling attacks are evenly matched, although injuries among the pace bowlers have affected both sides. Intriguing narratives may emerge around the tall bowlers—Marco Jansen and Kyle Jamieson—and which of the aggressive bowlers, Kagiso Rabada or Matt Henry, will achieve greater success.

A factor that could sway the match may lie in the spin bowling resources, with South Africa opting for a single specialist in Keshav Maharaj while New Zealand includes both captain Mitchell Santner and offspinner Michael Bracewell in their best XI. Maharaj has previously mentioned he views a spinner’s role as more defensive for this tournament, so watching their economy rates will be key here.

Overall, this match promises to be a competitive clash devoid of the added pressure typical of facing a major cricketing nation, even though there’s substantial history between the teams. New Zealand has eliminated South Africa from both the 2011 and 2015 World Cups, and while these past events will spark conversations among us, it’s essential to keep in mind that the latter occurrence was a decade ago, during which much cricket has unfolded.

Back then, especially for South Africa, the ramifications felt monumental. Nowadays, ICC events are held annually, and teams are recovering and starting over with increased regularity. Does that imply it matters less if a team loses at a crucial juncture or even if they triumph? Ask either of these squads, both of whom have spent the better part of three decades striving to win a major title, and they would likely disagree. Only one of them will have the chance to seize that opportunity this time around.

Current Form

South Africa: WWLLL (last five completed matches, most recent first)
New Zealand: LWWWW

Key Players: David Miller and Kane Williamson

Though it hasn’t been explicitly stated, could this be the last ODI tournament for 35-year-old David Miller with South Africa? If so, how significant will his contributions be? He has had limited chances in this tournament to date. He stepped in during the 43rd over against Afghanistan to hit the winning runs against England but has delivered nearly decisive performances in both of South Africa’s previous knockout encounters. In the 2023 ODI World Cup, Miller’s century helped the team defend a score when they found themselves at 24 for 4; in the 2024 T20 World Cup, he was looking solid at 21 off 17 before being caught spectacularly on the boundary, a play that could have pushed South Africa closer to victory. Miller has demonstrated an affinity for big moments and indicated he’s taking things on a year-by-year basis, so his opportunities to participate in knockout games may soon dwindle. After all his efforts, he will be eager to play a crucial role in securing a win for South Africa.

Kane Williamson has recorded back-to-back ODI centuries against South Africa, scored six years apart. He hit 106* against them in Birmingham in June 2019 and 133* at this venue during the tri-series leading up to this tournament, though that match did not feature a full-strength South African squad. Overall, Williamson boasts an average of 57.35 against South Africa, his best against any team other than Zimbabwe. While New Zealand has a lineup of inventive and skilled hitters, Williamson’s role in the team remains pivotal, as illustrated by his 81 against India in Dubai, where he kept New Zealand competitive in what ultimately proved a losing effort.

Like several experienced players at this tournament, at 34, Williamson may not have another chance to chase an ODI title and will want to capitalize on this opportunity.

Team Updates

Openers Temba Bavuma and Tony de Zorzi have recovered from illness that kept them out of the match against England and are expected to be fit for selection. However, de Zorzi may not have a place in the final XI unless Aiden Markram is unable to play. Markram sustained a hamstring injury while fielding against England and will face a fitness assessment during training on Tuesday evening. George Linde has been named as a traveling reserve. The bowling composition, featuring two all-rounders, one specialist spinner, and two seamers, is anticipated to remain unchanged.

South Africa (potential lineup): 1 Temba Bavuma (capt), 2 Ryan Rickelton, 3 Rassie van der Dussen, 4 Aiden Markram, 5 Heinrich Klaasen (wk), 6 David Miller, 7 Wiaan Mulder, 8 Marco Jansen, 9 Keshav Maharaj, 10 Kagiso Rabada, 11 Lungi Ngidi

New Zealand’s only dilemma is deciding who to drop among Will Young, Rachin Ravindra, Devon Conway, or Daryl Mitchell. Conway missed the match against India for Mitchell, who played against Pakistan but sat out against Bangladesh. Young and Ravindra both have centuries under their belts in this competition, indicating the choice is likely between Mitchell and Conway, the latter with scores of 30 and 10 in his matches during the tournament.

New Zealand (probable): 1 Will Young, 2 Rachin Ravindra/Devon Conway, 3 Kane Williamson, 4 Daryl Mitchell, 5 Tom Latham (wk), 6 Glenn Phillips, 7 Michael Bracewell, 8 Mitchell Santner (capt), 9 Matt Henry, 10 Kyle Jamieson, 11 Will O’Rourke

Pitch and Conditions

This year, the average first innings score in five ODIs is 316.5, with results evenly distributed between those batting first and the chasing team. It’s anticipated to be another excellent pitch for batsmen, while it may present challenges for bowlers. Though Heinrich Klaasen noted some drizzle upon South Africa’s arrival in the city on Monday, the weather forecast is mild and clear for the semi-final.

Statistics and Trivia

South Africa and New Zealand have not engaged in any bilateral white-ball cricket since 2017 but faced each other in the 2019 and 2023 World Cups, each team winning once, and they also competed in the Pakistan tri-nation series, which New Zealand won. In ICC tournaments, they have met 11 times, with New Zealand winning seven of those encounters.
South Africa is the only nation to have qualified for the knockout stages in all of the last seven ICC events—across men’s, women’s, and Under-19 tournaments. This includes the semi-final of the 2023 men’s ODI World Cup, the final of the 2024 men’s T20 World Cup, the final of the 2025 World Test Championship, the semi-final of the 2024 men’s Under-19 World Cup, the final of the 2024 women’s T20 World Cup, and the final of the 2025 women’s Under-19 World Cup.

Quotes

“Scheduling is a challenge across the board, but when you do find time to rest and recover, it’s crucial. One-day cricket can be quite taxing physically, and for us, it may be about ensuring our bowlers are ready for tomorrow. I don’t expect them to do much in training today.” New Zealand returned to Pakistan from Dubai early Monday morning and plans to focus on recovery instead of heavy training, as stated by captain Mitchell Santner.

Firdose Moonda is ESPNcricinfo’s correspondent for South Africa and women’s cricket