The Overview: Australia Has Thwarted India Before
“[T]here’s nothing quite as gratifying as watching a large audience fall silent.”
Pat Cummins may not be in Dubai on Tuesday, but his remarks from November 18, 2023, will resonate. While the players might not dwell on these words, viewers worldwide are likely to reflect on them—or at the very least, on the overarching idea they signify.
Since their quarter-final victory at the 2011 World Cup, India has faced Australia
four times in ICC ODI tournaments, achieving two wins and two losses. Their victories occurred during round-robin matches in the 2019 and 2023 World Cups, while their defeats came in the 2015 semi-finals and the 2023 final.
Time has elapsed since November 19, 2023, and the upcoming Champions Trophy semi-final will see a different India take on a considerably changed Australia. Nonetheless, the essence of that pivotal day continues to hold. In that World Cup, India formed a legendary squad that steamrolled through competitors like a force of nature; yet, they encountered an Australian team that was formidable enough to claim victory in a high-stakes match. It resembled a cricketing echo of
Maracana 1950.
The divide between the two teams in this tournament seems larger, as Australia is missing their complete first-choice pace attack. The conditions in Dubai further accentuate this divide. However, such disparities hold less significance in one-off matches than in a series or league. Australia’s lineup possesses enough talent to mitigate these issues, particularly with Travis Head’s game-changing ability at the top of the order (does India need a reminder of his prowess?), a robust middle order, and the legspin of Adam Zampa.
For India, lingering questions that went unnoticed during the group stage now demand attention. Virat Kohli has recently played his 300th ODI; how many more will he play? What about Rohit Sharma and Ravindra Jadeja? All three stepped away from the shortest format after India’s T20 World Cup win last year; how much longer will they compete in ODIs? Are they still aiming for 2027, or could this Champions Trophy be their swan song?
Regardless of their future, all three players would fiercely desire another ODI trophy to claim. While they each won the 2013 Champions Trophy and Kohli has a World Cup medal from 2011, the current cohort they’ve nurtured might be India’s finest ever in ODIs. Yet, as things stand, they lack the silverware to demonstrate their accomplishments.
Australia has thwarted them before. Once again, Australia stands between them.
Recent Form
India: WWWWW (last five completed ODIs, most recent first)
Australia: WLLLL
Featured Players: Rohit Sharma and Glenn Maxwell
Just shy of a month ago, amidst swirling uncertainties regarding his international future, Rohit Sharma delivered a stunning century against England that underscored his status as one of the world’s most formidable ODI openers. He got starts in all three of India’s group matches, yet his highest score in this Champions Trophy so far is 41. India would be eager for him to surpass that mark in this semi-final.
Among batters who have scored at least 200 ODI runs against spin since early 2022, Glenn Maxwell (141.49) possesses the highest strike rate. However, he’s the only top 12 player in that category averaging under 40 against spin (37.81). He epitomizes the dual nature of batting against spinners, excelling in dismantling them yet also posing risks. Maxwell’s performance will significantly influence a matchup against an Indian side boasting three—possibly four—top-notch spinners. His offspin may also be vital for Australia’s strategy; his dismissal of Rohit was pivotal in the 2023 World Cup final.
Team Updates
Will India opt for four spinners or three? If three, which combination will they choose? These are the critical considerations following Varun Chakravarthy’s five-wicket haul against New Zealand on Sunday. The semi-final pitch will likely influence these decisions, as it is the same used during the India-Pakistan match on February 23.
India (probable): 1 Rohit Sharma (capt), 2 Shubman Gill, 3 Virat Kohli, 4 Shreyas Iyer, 5 Axar Patel, 6 KL Rahul (wk), 7 Hardik Pandya, 8 Ravindra Jadeja, 9 Kuldeep Yadav, 10 Mohammed Shami, 11 Varun Chakravarthy
Australia has included Cooper Connolly in their squad as a replacement for the injured Matt Short, and he is anticipated to step in immediately due to the forthcoming conditions in Dubai. With Short absent and another offspinner unable to perform, the decision on who will open alongside Head will be critical. Josh Inglis appears to be the likely choice, having opened during Australia’s recent ODI series against West Indies last year, where he scored 65, 9, and 35*. There is also the possibility of choosing another frontline spinner, Tanveer Sangha, if the pitch conditions warrant such a selection.
Australia (probable): 1 Travis Head, 2 Josh Inglis (wk), 3 Steven Smith (capt), 4 Marnus Labuschagne, 5 Cooper Connolly, 6 Alex Carey, 7 Glenn Maxwell, 8 Ben Dwarshuis, 9 Nathan Ellis, 10 Spencer Johnson, 11 Adam Zampa
Pitch and Conditions
The pitch for this semi-final will be the same as that used for the India versus Pakistan match on February 23. It has proven to play similarly to the pitches for India’s other two matches against Bangladesh and New Zealand, with a consistent theme emerging. Across these three games, spinners averaged
42.22 in the first innings at a rate of 4.81 runs per over. In the second innings, they
averaged 24.76 and bowled at 4.18.
Pitches in Dubai have consistently shown a tendency to slow down over the span of 100 overs, and given that dew doesn’t pose much of a concern during this time of year, the captain winning the toss might opt to bat first.
Weather conditions are projected to be clear and sunny in Dubai, with a maximum temperature reaching 29 degrees Celsius.
Statistics and Trivia
- Since the beginning of 2010, India has maintained a positive win-loss record against all ODI opponents except Australia, against whom they stand at an even 23 wins and 23 losses.
India has achieved two wins and one loss in their four Champions Trophy encounters with Australia. Their last meeting was a rain-interrupted no-result at Centurion in 2009.
Starting from that Centurion game, Australia has participated in seven decisive matches in the Champions Trophy while having six matches either washed out or abandoned without a toss.
India has faced a streak of 13 consecutive toss losses, with Rohit captaining in ten of those instances and KL Rahul in three.
Maxwell is 17 runs away from reaching the 4000 ODI run milestone, while Rahul requires 33 runs to hit 3000.
Between them, Ben Dwarshuis, Nathan Ellis, and Spencer Johnson, Australia’s three main seamers in this tournament, have participated in merely two ODIs against India.
Notable Quotes
“The clear message during our ODI series against England was that regardless of the circumstances, you will bat at [No.] 5. His improvement with the bat over the previous year has been a delight to see […] He likes to be aggressive, to play shots. Sometimes, when the situation looks bleak, taking a positive approach is crucial. With Axar, we can certainly pursue that strategy. He demonstrated this in the T20 World Cup final, when he played a vital knock despite us being three down, helping us reach a considerable total. This is what we expect from him; whenever given the chance, he emerges capable of exceeding our expectations.”
India captain Rohit Sharma on deploying Axar Patel at No. 5
