In Wisconsin’s upcoming Supreme Court election, Republicans, having learned from past defeats, are countering a surge of Democratic funding with significant financial support. A super PAC backed by Elon Musk has contributed $2.3 million recently to promote Republican candidate Brad Schimel, while Republicans have outspent Democrats in television ads, totaling $13.9 million compared to $10.7 million. The election is critical, as the winner will control a four-to-three majority on the court, impacting issues like abortion and voting rights. Democrats, facing reduced big donations, are ramping up grassroots support for candidate Susan Crawford amid this notable funding shift.
During the previous Wisconsin Supreme Court election, Republicans voiced their concerns about the influx of funds from out-of-state Democrats that overshadowed their candidate.
Fast forward two years, and Republicans have adapted. This time, it’s the Democrats facing an onslaught of external financial support in Wisconsin.
A super PAC backed by Elon Musk has recently poured $2.3 million into text messages, digital ads, and paid canvassing efforts to ensure Wisconsin Republicans remember the approaching April 1 election, which features Brad Schimel, a judge from Waukesha County and former Republican state Attorney General, opposing Susan Crawford, a Dane County judge known for her work with Planned Parenthood and other progressive causes.
Mr. Musk’s expenditure, coming from the tech billionaire who is spearheading President Trump’s initiative to significantly reduce the federal government’s size, coincides with the reality that Judge Schimel and his Republican supporters have surpassed Judge Crawford and the Democrats in television ad spending — a significant shift in a state that has favored Democratic financial backing in recent years.
“As a young girl in Chippewa Falls, I never thought I would be going up against the richest man in the world,” Judge Crawford remarked to supporters during her campaign stop in Cambridge, Wisconsin.
As of Monday, Republicans had allocated or committed $13.9 million for television ads in the Wisconsin court race, compared to $10.7 million from Democrats, as reported by AdImpact, a media monitoring firm. Since a substantial portion of Republican funding comes from super PACs, which pay a higher rate for TV ads than candidates, the ad output across Wisconsin remains roughly balanced. However, this significant Republican investment has nullified the considerable financial edge Democrats held in the previous contest in 2023.
Mr. Musk’s digital advertisements and materials left at Republican residences focus on urging Trump supporters — who have typically shown lower participation outside of presidential elections — to make their voices heard on election day. One flyer stated, “President Trump needs you to get out and vote,” without mentioning Judge Schimel but criticizing Judge Crawford.
Wisconsin G.O.P. chairman Brian Schimming indicated that Judge Schimel stands a strong chance of winning if 60 percent of Trump voters show up for him.
The implications of the Wisconsin race are substantial, akin to those in 2023. The victorious candidate will establish a four-to-three majority on the state’s high court, with major rulings anticipated on issues like abortion, voting rights, collective bargaining laws, and congressional district maps.
Should Judge Crawford win a 10-year term, liberals will secure a majority until at least 2028. Conversely, if Judge Schimel triumphs, conservatives will take control of the court, with the majority position becoming contested again in 2026 and 2027, when seats currently held by conservative justices are on the ballot.
Republicans were caught off guard in 2023.
Justice Janet Protasiewicz, the liberal candidate that year, outspent her conservative opponent, Daniel Kelly, by more than four times and secured victory by 11 percentage points — a significant defeat by Wisconsin standards that shifted the ideological balance of the court for the first time in 15 years.
Despite the nonpartisan nature of the state’s judicial races, the Democratic Party of Wisconsin endorsed Justice Protasiewicz, while Mr. Kelly, a former state Supreme Court justice who lost a reelection bid in 2020, turned down an endorsement from a Republican Party with limited funds and little trust from conservative donors.
Democratic funding surged into the race like never before, leading to over $50 million in expenditures, making it the most expensive judicial election in American history. Reid Hoffman, the billionaire co-founder of LinkedIn, contributed $2.5 million to the state Democratic Party, which was subsequently transferred to the Protasiewicz campaign. (Mr. Hoffman subsequently donated another $7.4 million to Wisconsin Democrats in 2024 when the state emerged as a crucial presidential battleground.)
Wisconsin’s campaign finance laws permit donors to contribute unlimited amounts to state parties, which can then transfer these funds without restrictions to their endorsed candidates.
Currently, however, some key Democratic benefactors are becoming more cautious with their funding. Mr. Hoffman, who was so generous in 2023, has contributed a relatively modest $250,000 to this year’s Supreme Court contest as he scales back his political involvement. Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, who donated $1 million for the judicial race two years ago, has contributed $500,000 this time around. (George Soros, who provided $1 million in 2023, did so again last month.)
Ben Wikler, the Wisconsin Democratic chairman, noted that Judge Crawford’s spending pace has exceeded what Justice Protasiewicz experienced in the previous race, largely driven by smaller contributions. Judge Crawford has secured more individual donations since Mr. Musk’s initial super PAC investment last week than she did during the entire previous campaign period, according to campaign spokesman Derrick Honeyman.
“Democrats nationwide are asking, ‘What can we do to push back against the unlawful regime of Donald Trump and Elon Musk?’” Mr. Wikler stated. “The answer is to support Susan Crawford in her campaign against Brad Schimel.”
For Wisconsin Republicans, Mr. Musk’s financial backing is effectively motivating other right-leaning donors to contribute to the race, as noted by Mr. Schimming, who expressed regret that Republicans did not nationalize the 2023 contest and allowed Mr. Kelly to get overwhelmed by TV advertising.
Republican contributors who previously distanced themselves from the state party are now stepping up to support the race. Illinois billionaires Richard and Elizabeth Uihlein, prominent conservative financiers, have donated $1.3 million to the party to aid Judge Schimel, in addition to the $2.4 million their super PAC, Fair Courts America, has already invested in TV advertising for the election.
“The Dan Kelly race, unfortunate as it was, serves as a recent illustration of what occurs in court elections without sufficient attention,” Mr. Schimming explained. “Even as someone who has lived in Wisconsin my entire life, I have no qualms about expressing my gratitude to ZIP codes that don’t begin with a five. I’m ready to do it all day.”
Mr. Kelly, in an interview on Tuesday, expressed that he had “no regrets” regarding his 2023 campaign and lamented the significant influence of large sums of money flowing through political parties to support favored Supreme Court candidates.
“I feel deeply uncomfortable about political parties providing substantial contributions to judicial candidates,” he stated. “When observers see these limitless political donations, it raises concerns about how impartiality can be maintained regarding court decisions.”