As President Trump’s tariffs on Mexico loom, migrant numbers at the U.S.-Mexico border have drastically declined, with shelters in cities like Ciudad Juárez and Tijuana nearly empty. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security reports record low apprehensions, attributing the drop to Trump’s immigration policies and Mexico’s own restrictions, including checkpoints and visa requirements. Analysts note that Mexico now holds more negotiating power compared to 2019. Although some troops have been deployed to the border, their impact on migration is uncertain, as many migrants are either becoming stuck in Mexico or are disheartened by the low chances of crossing into the U.S.
As President Trump approaches his tariff deadline on Mexico, a noticeable fact is evident on the Mexican side of the border: The migrants have disappeared.
In regions that were once bustling, such as Ciudad Juárez, Tijuana, and Matamoros, shelters that previously overflowed now accommodate only a handful of families. Parks, hotels, and vacant houses that were once crowded with individuals from across the globe now stand vacant.
At the border itself, where migrants used to camp just feet from the towering 30-foot wall, only dust-covered clothing, discarded shoes, squeezed toothpaste tubes, and empty water bottles are left behind.
“All of that has ended,” remarked Rev. William Morton, a missionary at a Ciudad Juárez cathedral that provides meals for migrants. “No one can get through.”
Last week, U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem reported that Customs and Border Protection only apprehended 200 individuals at the southern border the previous Saturday — marking the lowest count for a single day in over 15 years.
Trump has attributed the declining numbers to his crackdown on illegal immigration, even as he has announced plans to deploy thousands of additional combat forces to the border, asserting that an invasion is underway.
However, analysts point out that Mexico’s recent actions to limit migration over the past year — not just at the border but nationwide — have produced clear results. In February, the Trump administration indicated it would temporarily delay the introduction of 25-percent tariffs on Mexican exports, challenging the government to further minimize migration and the trafficking of fentanyl across the border.
This progress has positioned Mexico in a much stronger negotiating stance than it held when Trump first threatened tariffs during his initial term.
“Mexico now holds new leverage compared to 2019,” stated Ariel G. Ruiz Soto and Andrew Selee, analysts from the Migration Policy Institute, a nonpartisan think tank, in their report. They noted that Mexico’s cooperation has become “indispensable” to the United States.
The influx of people towards the U.S. sharply decreased after President Biden enacted broad restrictions on asylum last year. Additionally, the Mexican government has significantly intensified its efforts in recent years to lower the number of migrants arriving at the border, establishing checkpoints along migrant routes, implementing visa restrictions, dispersing caravans, and relocating individuals arriving from countries like Venezuela to remote areas in southern Mexico to hinder them from reaching the U.S.
Since last spring, Mexican authorities have apprehended more individuals than their American counterparts every month. Presently, border counts have dwindled to nearly zero.
“We no longer experience significant migrations — they have decreased by 90 percent,” asserted Enrique Serrano Escobar, who oversees the Chihuahua State office focused on migrants in Juárez, last week.
Moreover, migrants arriving at the border are reportedly no longer attempting to enter the United States, according to shelter operators.
“They’re aware that crossing is not an option,” Father Morton noted in Juárez. “All the underground openings, tunnels, and breaches in the wall are effectively sealed — it’s significantly more challenging.”
Empty Shelters
Across Mexican border cities, the atmosphere in migrant shelters reflects a similar trend: tables remain untouched during mealtime, and bunk beds lie unused.
Even prior to Trump’s presidency, the figures for individuals apprehended while attempting border crossings had been significantly declining, based on U.S. government data.
Many individuals waiting in border towns secured appointments through CBP One, an application that allowed for asylum appointment scheduling with authorities rather than risking a border crossing, shelter operators reported.
After Trump abolished that app on his first day in office, many lost hope after a few days and opted to travel to Mexico City or even further south, as per Rev. Juan Fierro, a pastor at the Good Samaritan shelter in Ciudad Juárez.
At a once-bustling shelter in Matamoros called Helping Them Triumph, only a few Venezuelan women and their children remain, according to its directors.
In Tijuana, a shelter complex visible from the border wall, the Foundation Youth Movement 2000, which previously housed hundreds of individuals from various nationalities, now reports only 55 residents, as indicated by its director, José María Lara.
These individuals have been residing there since Trump took office.
“The numbers have remained consistent,” Mr. Lara mentioned. This includes migrants from Venezuela, Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Colombia, Guatemala, and other Mexican migrants from exceedingly hazardous states like Michoacán.
Currently, no statistics exist detailing how many migrants might be residing in shelters, hotels, and rented accommodations along the border, biding their time.
“We are going to wait and see if God touches Mr. Trump’s heart,” expressed a 26-year-old Venezuelan woman who requested to be identified only by her first name, Maria Elena, as she shared a meal with her 7-year-old son at the cathedral in Ciudad Juárez.
Guardsmen on the Border
In reaction to Trump’s demands last month, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum ordered the deployment of 10,000 national guardsmen to the border, alongside hundreds of additional troops sent to Sinaloa state, a significant fentanyl trafficking area.
Opinions vary among officials and those assisting migrants regarding whether the presence of the guards, which began to increase in and around every border city over the past month, has influenced illegal border crossings.
At the termination of the border wall separating Tijuana and San Diego, California, the National Guard has established large tents on the Mexican side, in an area referred to as Nido de las Águilas. Approximately 15 miles from downtown Tijuana, it has historically been exploited by coyotes, smugglers capitalizing on the steep hills and absence of police to guide migrants into California, according to authorities.
The guardsmen have also erected checkpoints at various locations along the border.
In Tijuana, José Moreno Mena, a representative of the Coalition for the Defense of Migrants, stated that the presence of the guards has acted as a significant deterrent against migration, along with Trump’s promised mass deportations in the U.S.
“This doesn’t mean that they won’t continue coming,” Mr. Moreno emphasized. “It’s merely a temporary pause, perhaps, until they witness improved conditions.”
However, in Tamaulipas, where over 700 guardsmen were stationed the previous month in areas such as Matamoros, locals report that these guardsmen have not significantly impacted migration. They appear to be mainly focused on the bridge into the United States, while migrants are now trying to enter through the desert or other remote locales.
In Ciudad Juárez, where hundreds of guardsmen were also deployed earlier this month, military personnel have been halting vehicles to inspect them and are searching for border tunnels.
“They’re conducting inspections during the night, in the streets,” Father Morton observed. “They are increased in number ostensibly to combat fentanyl, but I’m skeptical they even know where it originates.” He added that they primarily stop young men driving modified cars or those with tattoos, creating a “low-intensity conflict” atmosphere.
The core efforts to limit migration are taking place far from Mexico’s northern border.
In southern Mexico, specifically in Tapachula, the influx of new migrants is minimal. Shelters that once accommodated 1,000 individuals now serve only about a hundred, as per shelter operators. Many are waiting for visas that would permit them to head north and are actively dispersed if they attempt to form caravans; essentially, they are being blocked.
Many migrants are contemplating their options. Some have even requested the Mexican government to repatriate them via flights back to their home countries.
Staying Put in Mexico
The migrants presently gathered at the U.S. border predominantly come from locations they cannot return to.
“They have no option to return,” stated Rev. Francisco González, president of a shelter network in Juárez named We Are One for Juarez.
While his 12 shelters served only 440 individuals last week, a stark contrast to previous years when they were often filled to their 1,200 capacity, the newcomers are staying longer, he noted.
Some are beginning to fill out applications for asylum in Mexico, worried they might be apprehended and deported if they remain without legal status, Mr. González explained.
“We still retain hope that at some point Trump will regain his sanity,” remarked Jordan García, a former miner from Venezuela, sharing that he, his wife, and three daughters spent seven months journeying to Ciudad Juárez.
Mr. García carried his infant daughter, Reina Kataleya, through the perilous Darién Gap jungle when she was just seven months old. Now, the family resides in a makeshift home within one of Mr. González’s shelters at the edge of Ciudad Juárez, surrounded by plush blankets for privacy.
However, shelters along the border have begun to close. In Ciudad Juárez, 34 were operational in November; by last month, that count had decreased to 29. Shelters operators report that not only are arrivals dwindling but they are also losing support from international organizations such as the U.N. International Office for Migration and UNICEF, which have faced frozen foreign aid under Trump’s administration.
“Prior to the new U.S. administration, there were more individuals, and more assistance,” remarked Olivia Santiago Rentería, a volunteer at a shelter managed by We Are One for Juarez. “Now,” she lamented, “everyone here is living amidst uncertainty.”
Reporting contributed by Rocío Gallegos from Ciudad Juárez, Mexico; Aline Corpus from Tijuana; Enrique Lerma from Matamoros; and Lucía Trejo from Tapachula.