Last week, we discussed underperforming players in fantasy baseball. This week, I highlight struggling players worth keeping. Brandon Lowe (TB) and Dylan Crews (WAS) have impressive expected stats despite current lows. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) and Salvador Perez (KC) should be performing much better, with both having strong underlying metrics. Luis Robert Jr. (CHW) and Brandon Nimmo (NYM) also show potential based on their statistics. Mike Trout (LAA) remains dangerous, though injured, while pitchers like Chris Sale (ATL) and Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) are expected to bounce back. Target Rutschman (BAL) for potential in future games.
Last week, we delved into the players to be concerned about after the first month. Today, let’s uplift your spirits by examining the struggling players who shouldn’t be a cause for alarm. Think of me as the life of your fantasy gathering: Dr. Feelgood.
Once again, I make no guarantees. I’m not claiming these players will transform their fortunes or lead you to a championship — they simply don’t warrant this level of underperformance.
Check out The Athletic’s guide for abbreviations frequently used in fantasy baseball.
Hitters
Brandon Lowe (2B, TB) should be hitting .266 with a .474 slugging percentage, rather than his current .203/.305. Over his career, his actual stats diverge from his expected ones by just .004. His barrel rate remains impressive at 10.8%, and his hard-hit rate exceeds the league average. The barrels are promising, even with his elevated K%.
Dylan Crews (OF, WAS) is expected to hit .259 with a .468 SLG — in other words, he’s living up to the hype as one of baseball’s top rookie prospects. His barrel rate stands at 14.8% (average is 7%), and when adjusted for plate appearances, his rate is 9.6%, which is double the MLB average. Additionally, with nine steals, Crews has the potential to become a significant asset moving forward.
Yordan Alvarez (OF, HOU) has been underwhelming, even in his expected stats, which should be .246/.495 in AVG/SLG (a tough mark for him). However, it diverges from his actual .210/.340. His expected metrics reflect a typical one-month variance, while his actual numbers are an inexplicable letdown. I refuse to believe that a poor lineup could affect his stats to this extent. Baseball remains an individual contest: hitter vs. pitcher. The players surrounding him might affect his counting stats, but not his averages.
Salvador Perez (C, KC) should be boasting an outstanding .331 average and a .604 SLG, placing him in the 96th percentile or higher. Instead, he’s hitting .238 with a .373 SLG. Now’s the time to trade for Perez. His barrel rate of 15.3% is nearly equal to his strikeout rate (19.1%).
Luis Robert Jr. (OF, CHW) has had a tough go. His expected stats sit at .233/.413. Nevertheless, his barrel rate is a career-high at 13.5%. While his strikeouts are alarmingly high at over 30%, when adjusted for plate appearances, his 7.1% barrel rate is significantly above the average (4.8%). Typically, most barrels result in hits. His actual stats reflect a low .188/.342. Given his 15 steals, he could be a championship-caliber player if he returns to his expected numbers.
Brandon Nimmo (OF, NYM) is enjoying his second-best season based on expected stats. His hard-hit rate is an astounding 59.4% (98th percentile), and his strikeout rate is nearly at a career-best 17.5% (73rd percentile). While the lack of steals is disappointing, it’s worth noting he’s now just an average runner. The power is undeniably there.
Julio Rodriguez (OF, SEA) is experiencing his best season in expected stats. While we don’t usually play with expected stats in fantasy, perhaps we should reconsider. His strikeout rate is at a career low, and his walk rate is at a career high. He should be hitting .252 with a .475 slugging percentage, which is respectable, especially since he has the potential to threaten a 30/30 season.
Adley Rutschman (C, BAL) is having his best season in expected stats as well (.283/.481 compared to his actual .216/.360). The Orioles as a team have faced their fair share of misfortune. However, I’d recommend targeting Rutschman, whom I previously overlooked this winter, given that his walks and strikeouts are almost balanced.
Mike Trout (OF, LAA) has an expected ISO over .300. His expected average is merely .248, which is significantly better than his actual (.179). His strikeout percentage is nearing 30%, signaling a potential decline. I acknowledge he’s not the player he used to be, but he remains a formidable threat. He could still hit .250 with 40 home runs in a healthy full season, though he’s currently on the IL with what’s been called a minor knee injury.
Pitchers
Chris Sale (ATL) has achieved a 3.31 expected ERA (with a 4.84 actual ERA), which aligns with what we might have anticipated given his age. His strikeout percentage is still in the 86th percentile, and his control falls within the 81st. His WHIP should be around 1.10 (actual 1.41). Even his velocity is only down about half a mile per hour, consistent with expectations for a 36-year-old.
Bailey Ober (MIN) has an expected ERA of 3.51 compared to 3.22 last year and 3.63 in 2023. His strikeout percentage, below 20%, is concerning. He has experienced a slight drop in velocity but averaged 91.4 mph (only 0.3 mph less than in 2024) in his latest outing. So, I hold out hope for a positive regression in his strikeout percentage.
Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) is the unluckiest pitcher in baseball, with an expected ERA (3.41) that is 2.50 less than his actual ERA. His strikeout percentage is well above his career average, while his walk rate is below it. He’s only 15% rostered on Yahoo, which I understand, but he hasn’t been this unfortunate. Therefore, pick him up in all formats.
(Photo of Julio Rodriguez: Alika Jenner / Getty Images)