Rays Series Outlook: Al Fresco Baseball in Tampa

The Royals have been inspired by the Rays in various aspects, hiring manager Matt Quatraro and bench coach Paul Hoover from their ranks. Owner John Sherman has emphasized a desire for a more sustainable competitive approach, similar to that of the Rays, who have managed success on a limited budget. Since 2007, the team has recorded fewer than 80 wins in just two full seasons, while achieving 90+ victories nine times during this period.

The Rays have captured two pennants in the same timeframe, yet they are still in search of their inaugural championship. Currently, the franchise’s future is uncertain, as damage to Tropicana Field from Hurricane Milton has forced the team to play at Steinbrenner Field, a minor league venue associated with the Yankees.

The Rays endured a lackluster losing record last season with an 80-82 finish and have since traded away players like Isaac Paredes, Aaron Civale, Jason Adam, Zach Eflin, Jose Siri, and Randy Arozarena. While they began this season slowly, they are riding a five-game winning streak after sweeping the Padres on the road over the weekend.

Kansas City Royals (14-15) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (14-14) at Steinbrenner Field, Tampa, FL

Royals: 3.14 runs scored/game (29th in MLB), 3.69 runs allowed/game (7th)

Rays: 4.21 runs scored/game (18th), 3.71 runs allowed/game (8th)

Steinbrenner Field generally favors hitters, but it also ranks among the windiest parks in MLB, with winds blowing out during the afternoons and in for evening games. The Rays faced three shutouts during their recent homestand but have hit 19 of their 25 home runs at home, averaging 4.47 runs per game there. Notably, Rays batters have the third-highest groundball rate in the league.

Jonathan Aranda is having a breakout year with a wRC+ of 184, ranking fifth in baseball, although he struggles against lefties with a .154 average. Due to injuries, former Mizzou outfielder Kameron Misner has stepped into the lineup and made the most of his chance, boasting a .350/.404/.675 batting line with three home runs in Tampa. Christopher Morel sits tenth in baseball for barrels-per-plate appearance but also carries the highest strikeout rate, clocking in at 40 percent.

Junior Caminero was once a highly-touted prospect, yet has dipped to .220/.265/.429 this month following a hot April. Chandler Simpson, after stealing 104 bases in the minors last year, has brought energy to the Rays in his first eight games, showcasing impressive speed and defense. Yandy Diaz continues to struggle with groundballs, maintaining a 52.8 percent groundball rate.

As a team, the Rays rank sixth in MLB for stolen bases, with Jake Mangum succeeding in all eight attempts. José Caballero has been reliable at shortstop, but Caminero has had difficulties at third base, while Morel has proved less effective in the outfield.

Starting pitching has consistently been a strength for the Rays, despite roster turnover. The Rays’ starters have a combined 3.74 ERA this season, with the fifth-best strikeout rate. Taj Bradley has three quality starts under his belt, including his most recent outing against the Diamondbacks, where he allowed three runs in six innings. Last year, he held the Royals scoreless for five innings with just one hit. His fastball reaches 97 mph, one of the highest velocities among starters, although opponents are hitting .273 against it this season.

Injuries have plagued Drew Rasmussen over the past two years, but he has come back strong this season, owning the sixth-lowest ERA among AL starters with 20 or more innings pitched. In his last start against Arizona, he allowed four runs over five innings—his highest total for this season and marked his first home run allowed. Rasmussen’s cutter has a 40 percent whiff rate, with opponents only managing a .067 average against it this year.

Shane Baz has also battled injuries, making only 28 starts in the past five years. However, when healthy, he showcases one of the best fastballs in the league. In his latest outing against the Padres, he threw seven shutout innings, and he has achieved double-digit strikeouts in two starts this season. Baz ranks seventh in strikeout-to-walk ratio among qualified starters, additionally sporting a flyball rate of 46.3 percent, one of the highest in baseball.

Cole Ragans remains uncertain for his scheduled start on Wednesday due to a mild groin strain sustained in his last appearance. Noah Cameron, who pitched just two innings on Saturday, may step in if Ragans is unable to take the mound.

Rays relievers have achieved a 2.99 ERA, marking the fifth-lowest in baseball this year. Former Mizzou pitcher Pete Fairbanks has successfully converted all six save chances. Left-handed pitcher Mason Montgomery throws a fastball at 99 mph, ranking among the highest in the league. Manuel Rodriguez boasts the seventh-best strikeout-to-walk ratio for relievers with a stellar 63 percent groundball rate. Mason Englert has one of the highest hard-hit rates in baseball, currently at 46 percent. Hailing from Lawrence, Garrett Cleavinger has a reverse split this season, with righties only hitting .115 against him.

The Rays have shown inconsistency this season, though they are currently on the upswing. Last year, these two teams evenly split their six matchups, but the Royals have not secured a season series victory since 2017. The minor league park presents unique challenges, but perhaps the winds will favor the Royals this week.