Central North Carolina is under a Level 3 risk for severe storms on Wednesday, indicating more intense and widespread weather. Meteorologist Aimee Wilmoth stressed the seriousness of this uncommon alert, as damaging winds could begin early, warranting a Wind Advisory from 4 a.m. to 7 p.m. Storms are expected post-8 a.m., peaking between 9 a.m. and 2 p.m. Potential gusts may exceed 70 mph, raising concerns for power outages. Although isolated storms may occur later, the main threat is damaging winds rather than widespread hail or flooding. Preparations are advised, as conditions can change rapidly.
A significant portion of central North Carolina, including our region, is facing a Level 3 (on a scale of 5) risk for severe storms this Wednesday. A Level 3 risk is rare for our locality and signifies that storms could be more frequent, enduring, and widespread.
“While this doesn’t happen often in our region, it is crucial that we take it very seriously,” said WRAL meteorologist Aimee Wilmoth.
Storms are expected to begin after 8 a.m. on Wednesday, although wind gusts could start to intensify in the morning.
As a result, a Wind Advisory has been issued for much of North Carolina on Wednesday.
What is our risk level for severe thunderstorms Wednesday?
NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has categorized our area with a Level 3 risk on the Day 2 outlook for severe thunderstorms this Wednesday.
The National Weather Service in Raleigh notes that the last instance of a Level 3 risk in the Day 2 outlook was on August 7, 2023. That day, WRAL reported 80,000 residents without power in the Triangle area.
It’s worth noting that on that day, temperatures reached 90 degrees and there was considerably more lightning associated with the storms. While we might not see power outages affecting 80,000 people this time, we will address the potential for outages below.
Stay tuned to WRAL News+ for the latest updates on the timing and impacts of Wednesday’s storms
What does a “Level 3” risk of severe weather signify?
This designation has increased since Monday. A Level 3 risk indicates that ‘numerous’ reports of severe weather damage are expected.
Wind damage from strong gusts is becoming an increasing concern based on this latest forecast.
When is this expected to occur?
This will manifest as a line or broken line of showers and storms advancing from west to east between approximately 9 a.m. and 2 p.m.
Regions west of Raleigh can anticipate the most severe weather to commence by 10 a.m. This will continue to move eastward until 2 p.m., leaving our area by the time of the evening commute.
A few isolated storms may occur in the evening, but the “main event” is expected to take place late in the morning and early afternoon.
Windy conditions are likely to persist into Thursday as the area of low pressure moves northward.
Can you show us FutureCast?
FutureCast utilizes short-term, high-resolution data. We’ll have an initial update on that Monday morning, which will refresh every six hours.
I’ve divided it into four sections below to provide you with an idea of the timing.
What are the main threats?
During such instances, damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. The most severe gusts could reach or exceed 70 mph, contributing to our higher-than-normal threat level. At times, these storm lines can exhibit rotation on their northern edges, thus the tornado threat cannot be ruled out. (This situation is not comparable to the events of April 16, 2011; we’ve received inquiries about that.)
Currently, widespread large hail or flooding isn’t anticipated.
Are power outages a concern?
Considering the potential for damaging wind gusts, power outages are a distinct possibility. We’ve experienced similar situations in the past where a corresponding line resulted in power loss for thousands.
NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center forecasts that scattered gusts of 70-75 mph may occur throughout the Carolinas.
What is the difference between a watch and a warning?
A watch indicates that conditions are favorable for severe weather within the next few hours, and this is when you should prepare.
A warning signifies that severe weather is imminent or currently occurring, which indicates that you should take action.
Is there a chance that the forecast changes, and we don’t experience severe storms?
Often, we utilize the acronym SLIM to assess potential severe weather conditions.
SLIM stands for:
- Shear: The variation of winds with both speed and height, which supports storm dynamics as they advance from west to east.
- Lift: Elevating air in the atmosphere enabling storm development and rainfall.
- Instability: The necessary storm fuel for thunderstorms to achieve their maximum intensity.
- Moisture: This requires no further clarification.
There is ample wind shear present in the atmosphere to facilitate strong gusts. However, the level of instability may be questionable, which could limit our potential for severe weather.
The goal is to have an earlier onset of storms, as this would prevent the atmosphere from warming up and becoming unstable.
I have a flight. Should I expect delays?
This is a difficult question to address. If you’re traveling to cities like Houston, Chicago, St. Louis, Kansas City, or Memphis on Tuesday, delays could be likely. Regarding our local weather, I anticipate at least minor delays at RDU as the storm line passes, but I can’t predict cancellations.
Will there be any changes to school schedules?
This is another question that remains uncertain, as we’re not involved in making those decisions. However, it seems that the most severe weather will occur after bus stop times.
I have observed school systems modify schedules or after-school activities in the past when severe thunderstorms were anticipated.
How do we receive warnings?
If a tornado warning is issued, we will provide continuous live coverage across all platforms.