Evaluating Trump’s Statements on Tariffs, Ukraine, and DOGE Prior to His Congressional Address

President Trump will speak to Congress on Tuesday evening to promote his agenda for a second term, as he looks to transform American governance and explore the boundaries of executive authority.

This address follows a series of executive actions aimed at removing federal employees he perceives as disloyal and reshaping both domestic and foreign policy. In advancing his agenda, Mr. Trump has frequently made inaccurate statements and unfounded claims, such as asserting that Ukraine initiated the conflict with Russia and that diversity initiatives within the Federal Aviation Administration were responsible for a recent plane crash.

The president’s remarks are anticipated to cover significant reductions in federal programs and workforce changes implemented by him and Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency. Additionally, he is likely to highlight his tough stance on immigration and his initiatives to enforce high tariffs aimed at strengthening domestic manufacturing.

Recent statements from Mr. Trump provide a glimpse of what to expect in his address. Below is a fact-check:

What Was Said

“We were richest — the richest, relatively — from, think of this, from 1870 to 1913. That was our richest because we collected tariffs from foreign countries that came in and took our jobs and took our money, took our everything, but they charged tariffs.”
— at the Conservative Political Action Conference on Feb. 22

False. Mr. Trump is incorrect in claiming that the United States was wealthiest during the Gilded Age and he is exaggerating the effects of tariffs. He also misrepresents that the nation’s prosperity decreased in 1913 with the introduction of a permanent federal income tax.

A spokesperson from the White House acknowledged rapid wage growth and economic expansion during the Gilded Age but did not provide evidence of unparalleled prosperity during that period. Currently, the United States is considerably wealthier than it was back then, even after adjusting for inflation. From 1870 to 1913, the nation’s gross domestic product surged from about $190 billion to nearly $1 trillion, with per capita GDP increasing from $4,800 to $10,000. These figures have continued to rise significantly, reaching nearly $20 trillion and over $58,000 per capita in 2022.

By comparison to other nations, the United States was equally or more affluent after World War II than during the Gilded Age. In 1870, the U.S. ranked as the third-largest economy behind China and India, but by 1920, it emerged as the world’s largest economy, accounting for approximately 23 percent of global GDP. The U.S. maintained this status until 2014, when it was surpassed by China.

Nonetheless, inequality hit a peak during the Gilded Age, with the U.S. having one of the highest levels of economic disparity globally by 1910. According to standard global metrics, U.S. inequality declined after the introduction of taxes targeting wealthier individuals, but has rebounded somewhat in recent decades.

While the U.S. economy did experience rapid growth during the Gilded Age, tariffs were not the only contributing factor, noted Richard White, a historian at Stanford University and an authority on the Gilded Age. He cited additional factors, including the U.S. seizure of Native lands and a population boom between 1860 and 1890, mainly driven by immigration.

What Was Said

“We have found hundreds of billions of dollars of fraud so far.”
— before a bilateral meeting with President Emmanuel Macron of France on Feb. 24

This lacks evidence. The White House spokesperson mentioned that the Department of Government Efficiency identified hundreds of billions of dollars in fraud within the federal government. However, the team handling the government overhaul does not claim to have substantiated such an amount in specific savings or fraud.

As of Sunday, Mr. Musk’s team reported approximately $105 billion in savings. Their initiative’s website lists canceled contracts amounting to about $8 billion in savings, with vague descriptions for an additional $10 billion in terminated grants and $660 million in terminated leases. Overall, this amounts to less than $20 billion, with the remainder appearing to lack explanation.

The New York Times and other media have highlighted that the approximately $20 billion in savings remains unverified. The initiative’s website has undergone updates to correct errors such as contracts inaccurately reported as worth billions when they were actually valued in millions, improperly counted contracts, and contracts that had concluded or were not indeed canceled.

The federal Government Accountability Office estimated last year, prior to the establishment of DOGE, that the government experiences losses of $233 billion to $521 billion annually due to fraud. However, it is uncertain whether any of the announced cuts by the Trump administration involved canceled payments for fraudulent services.

While Mr. Trump and other officials have labeled spending they oppose as waste, fraud inherently involves deceit or misrepresentation. For instance, DOGE claims it has terminated leases for underutilized and vacant properties and asserts that there is “plenty of available office space for the current workforce.” However, it did not refer to any fraud in those leases.

What Was Said

“Europe has given $100 billion. The United States has given $350 billion because we had a stupid, incompetent president and administration, 350. But here’s worse: Europe gave it in the form of a loan; they get their money back.”
— at CPAC on Feb. 22, in reference to aid to Ukraine

This is exaggerated. Mr. Trump is inflating the U.S.’s financial support for Ukraine while downplaying Europe’s contributions and misrepresenting the balance of loans and grants from each side.

Official and independent evaluations of American assistance to Ukraine indicate it is roughly half of Mr. Trump’s stated amount. The Congressional Research Service revealed that Congress has allocated $174 billion in assistance to Ukraine since the 2022 fiscal year. The Pentagon’s inspector general has estimated this figure to be about $182 billion.

The spokeswoman from the White House contended that indirect costs amount to tens of billions more, which includes lost trade with Russia due to sanctions and the inflationary consequences of the war. However, both lost trade and inflation have also impacted Europe, a major trading partner with Russia prior to the conflict. Mr. Trump has acknowledged on earlier occasions that the aid provided by the United States to Ukraine could be less than $350 billion.

The European Union estimates that its member states have provided around $145 billion in aid, with additional commitments of tens of billions more.

Mr. Trump does have a valid point regarding the majority of American aid being in the form of grants and direct support rather than loans; however, he overstates the share of loans from the European Union.

The Pentagon’s inspector general noted that the United States allocated about $20 billion, or roughly 10 percent, of total aid in loans. In contrast, European Union sources claim they have provided approximately 35 percent of total aid, roughly $50 billion, as loans.

In light of a confrontational Russia and an erratic American president, European leaders are seeking to boost their own military expenditures and take on a greater share of the responsibilities in supporting Ukraine and the continent’s defense.

What Was Said

“For four long years, you had a president who put illegal aliens up in penthouse suites and beautiful hotels on Park Avenue or on Madison Avenue or on Fifth Avenue in Manhattan.” — at CPAC on Feb. 22

“They sent $59 million to New York City for a hotel, for a little bit of nothing, what they’ve done. A hotel that was not luxury that’s getting luxury rates for migrants, where they’re making a fortune.” — at a swearing-in ceremony on Feb. 12

This is misleading. While New York did accommodate tens of thousands of migrants in hotels, Mr. Trump is primarily mistaken about where the migrants were housed, the payments involved, and the Biden administration’s role.

In 2023, Congress introduced the Shelter and Services Program, which allocated around $640 million in grants for the 2024 fiscal year to organizations and municipalities offering shelter and services for migrants. This program does not directly pay for hotel accommodations or specify where migrants should be housed.

New York City received approximately $190 million total in the 2023 and 2024 fiscal years, according to federal data.

However, the city has expended significantly more than the federal funds received to provide housing for migrants, as it aimed to offer refuge beyond its already-stretched city shelters. According to a comptroller’s report, the city spent nearly $1 billion to accommodate migrants across 119 hotels from September 2022 to August 2024. The majority of these were budget or midscale properties, with an average nightly rate of $156 for the 2024 fiscal year, in contrast to around $52 for a shelter bed. About 19 of these hotels were situated in Manhattan.

Luxury hotels in Manhattan generally charge significantly higher rates. They reported a revenue per room of approximately $440 in 2024 and an average daily rate exceeding $560, according to PricewaterhouseCoopers estimates. The Trump International Hotel & Tower, a luxury hotel with views of Central Park, charges $475 to $700 per night for a standard room.

The $59 million figure cited by Mr. Trump refers to the size of one of the grants awarded to the city in the 2024 fiscal year by the federal government, not the payment to any single hotel.