A study published in The Lancet forecasts that by 2050, India could have over 440 million obese and overweight individuals, making it the second highest globally, after China. This includes 218 million men and 231 million women. Currently, nearly 180 million Indians are affected, and the global figures could rise to 3.8 billion by mid-century. The research highlights a pressing public health crisis, particularly among youth, predicting over 22 million young adults in India will suffer from obesity. Experts have called for improved obesity measurement methods beyond BMI to identify those needing intervention.
New Delhi:
According to an analysis published in The Lancet journal, by 2050, India could witness more than 440 million individuals categorized as obese or overweight.
By the middle of the century, it’s predicted that the number of overweight and obese adults in India (218 million men and 231 million women) could rank second globally, following China, with the United States, Brazil, and Nigeria expected to occupy the third, fourth, and fifth positions, respectively, as revealed by a team of international researchers.
This research team, which includes members from the Indian Council of Medical Research, collaborated on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021.
The study indicates that nearly half of the world’s adult population — approximately a billion men and over a billion women aged 25 and older — were classified as overweight or obese by 2021. In India, this figure was close to 180 million, comprising 81 million men and 98 million women.
However, by 2050, the global number of overweight and obese individuals could soar to almost 3.8 billion — with 1.8 billion men and 1.9 billion women — which would represent “more than half of the expected global adult population at that time,” according to the authors.
“Although China, India, and the USA will continue to represent a significant portion of the global population dealing with overweight and obesity, the sub-Saharan African super-region is projected to experience a staggering increase of 254.8 percent,” they stated.
The researchers also projected that by 2050, approximately 16 million boys and over 14 million girls aged 5-14 years in India could be classified as overweight or obese, ranking second in the world after China.
Nevertheless, among the 15-24 age demographic, India could bear the highest burden globally, with more than 22 million men and nearly 17 million women in the country facing this health crisis in 2050.
Emmanuela Gakidou, the lead author from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, which oversees the GBD study, remarked, “The unprecedented global epidemic of overweight and obesity represents a significant tragedy and a monumental societal failure.” She further noted that the study, “the most comprehensive global analysis to date,” could assist governments and the public health sector in “identifying priority populations suffering from the greatest obesity burdens who need immediate intervention and treatment, as well as those who are largely overweight and should be primarily targeted with prevention strategies.”
These latest findings come in the context of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s strong advocacy for combating obesity during his monthly ‘Mann Ki Baat’ radiocast on February 23.
He emphasized the need to address obesity to become a fit and healthy nation.
Obesity, defined as having a body mass index (BMI) over 30, is known to have extensive repercussions, including an increased risk of metabolic and cardiovascular diseases. It can also adversely impact bone health, fertility, and elevate cancer risk.
Recently, however, experts have called for a more sophisticated approach to assessing obesity.
In January, the authors of a Lancet Commission report suggested a need to revamp how obesity is diagnosed and proposed a new methodology that considers factors like waist circumference or waist-to-hip ratio, in addition to BMI.
They argued that BMI is not an accurate indicator of health or disease and can lead to incorrect diagnoses.
The team recommended introducing two new categories for obesity diagnosis, which represent “objective measures” of individual health — ‘clinical obesity’ and ‘pre-clinical obesity’.
‘Clinical obesity’ denotes a chronic or ongoing condition resulting from obesity-related organ dysfunction, while ‘pre-clinical obesity’ is associated with heightened health risks without the presence of disease, they clarified.
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)