As President Trump threatened steep tariffs on Mexican exports, Mexico’s leaders, led by President Claudia Sheinbaum, took decisive actions to avert them. Mexico deployed 10,000 troops to curb migration, intensified the crackdown on fentanyl production, and handed over several cartel operatives to the U.S. Additionally, Mexico imposed tariffs on Chinese imports to position itself as a strategic trade partner for the U.S. Despite ongoing threats of tariffs, Mexican financial markets remain stable, reflecting hope that Sheinbaum can negotiate a deal. The situation underscores Mexico’s reliance on U.S. trade, with potential tariffs posing risks to its economy.
Mexico prepared for the worst after President Trump threatened substantial tariffs on its exports. However, as the deadline approaches, Mexican officials are optimistic that they have discovered a strategy to avoid tariffs by taking decisive actions across various fronts to satisfy Mr. Trump.
To address Mr. Trump’s concerns regarding migration and illegal drugs, President Claudia Sheinbaum is deploying 10,000 troops to deter migrants heading towards the United States, enhancing measures to disband migrant caravans and transporting migrants far from the border.
Moreover, Ms. Sheinbaum is transferring dozens of prominent cartel operatives to the United States and accepting intelligence from C.I.A. drone surveillance to capture additional suspects. Unlike her predecessor, who incorrectly asserted that Mexico did not produce fentanyl, she is implementing a crackdown that has led to record drug seizures.
Simultaneously, Mexico’s leaders are enforcing their own tariffs and restrictions on a wide array of Chinese imports, aiming to convince Mr. Trump that Mexico, with its cost-effective industrial base, could be a strategic ally in diminishing China’s economic influence.
Mr. Trump continues to threaten a 25 percent tariff on Tuesday, yet Mexico’s financial markets remain stable, reflecting the belief among the country’s business community that Ms. Sheinbaum can broker a deal.
“Her management of this crisis has been far superior to any other leader,” remarked Diego Marroquín Bitar, a scholar specializing in North American trade at the Wilson Center, a research institution in Washington.
Mr. Trump referred to Ms. Sheinbaum as a “marvelous woman” following their conversation in February.
Ms. Sheinbaum is balancing her conciliatory public approach to please Mr. Trump, such as troop deployment, with increased security cooperation behind the scenes and a moderate level of pushback against Mr. Trump concerning issues like renaming the Gulf of Mexico.
This juggling act for Ms. Sheinbaum is challenging, despite her approval rating soaring to 80 percent. There is deep skepticism towards Mr. Trump’s xenophobic politics in both Mexican society and within Morena, her political party, which combines nationalist and leftist ideals.
After decades of integration, Mexico is more reliant on trade with the United States than any other major economy. Economists warn that tariffs, even if temporary, could have a significant negative impact.
Mr. Trump is also threatening an additional 25 percent tariffs on global steel and aluminum imports, which would also impact Mexico. Furthermore, the Trump administration is working on more “reciprocal” tariffs designed to counteract trade barriers and match import duties imposed by other nations.
The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is already affecting Mexico’s economy, causing businesses to delay plans. The central bank has reduced its growth forecast for this year from 1.2 percent to 0.6 percent.
Nevertheless, Mr. Trump’s persistent threats followed by his retracting those threats have fostered hopes of de-escalation. He initially promised to impose tariffs on his first day in office but has since retracted that commitment twice.
Mexican negotiators are currently in Washington to meet with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, hoping to reach a last-minute agreement.
Here are three key areas in which Mexico is mobilizing to align with the priorities of the Trump administration.
Curbing Migration
Mexico’s commitment to dispatch an additional 10,000 National Guard members to the U.S. border was highlighted by Mr. Trump in early February when he delayed imposing tariffs for 30 days.
For months, Mexico had already started dismantling migrant caravans before they reached border cities and expanding a covert program that relocated thousands of migrants to the interior of Mexico.
According to government data, Mexico detained approximately 475,000 migrants in the last quarter of 2024, more than double the amount detained during the first nine months of that year.
The border was already exceptionally quiet prior to Mr. Trump taking office in January, reflecting Mexico’s enforcement efforts and the Biden administration’s asylum restrictions.
The Trump administration’s renewed initiatives to restrict migration flows, combined with Mexico’s troop deployment, are making it increasingly difficult for migrants to enter the United States.
Migrant crossings have plummeted to historically low levels. At one point in February, U.S. personnel stationed at the Mexican border encountered a mere 200 migrants in a single day, the lowest count in recent history.
Should this trend continue on an annualized basis, Border Patrol apprehensions could dip to levels not seen in nearly 60 years around the conclusion of the Johnson administration, as noted by Adam Isacson, a migration expert at the Washington Office on Latin America.
Mexico has intensified efforts to combat cartels involved in the production of illegal narcotics, primarily fentanyl, the synthetic opioid that Mr. Trump has identified as the main contributor to overdose fatalities in the United States.
In a departure from the past, when cartels were able to produce fentanyl with little governmental interference, Mexican authorities have recently been making regular announcements about new fentanyl seizures.
These actions include the recent seizure of six kilos of fentanyl at Mexico City’s new international airport, bound for New Jersey. This followed an earlier discovery of 18 kilograms of fentanyl hidden in a passenger bus in the northwestern state of Sonora.
In December, shortly after Mr. Trump began threatening tariffs against Mexico, authorities made a massive seizure of 800 kilograms of fentanyl in Sinaloa state, the largest capture of synthetic opioids in Mexico’s history.
In February, Mexican officials in Puerto Vallarta apprehended two American citizens with outstanding arrest warrants in the U.S. for trafficking fentanyl. Both individuals were extradited to Oklahoma.
Following up on Thursday, Mexico transferred nearly 30 high-ranking cartel members who are wanted by U.S. authorities, marking one of the largest handovers in the history of the drug war.
These efforts are designed to prevent tariffs and military action by the United States, which Mr. Trump has threatened against drug cartels operating in Mexico.
Andrés Manuel López Obrador, Ms. Sheinbaum’s mentor and previous president, had limited cooperation with the United States regarding anti-narcotics efforts. Ms. Sheinbaum seems to be taking a different approach altogether.
Mexican officials, for instance, have been open to receiving intelligence from the C.I.A., which has increased secret drone operations over Mexico in search of fentanyl production facilities. Mexico’s defense minister stated in late February that U.S. drones had been utilized to track key figures within the Sinaloa Cartel.
Enhanced enforcement could potentially aid in lowering overdose deaths in the United States, which have already begun to decline.
In what may be a positive indicator for Mexican negotiators pursuing a tariff agreement, overdose fatalities decreased by approximately 24 percent in the 12-month period ending September 2024 compared to the previous year, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control.
Countering China
Trade between China and Mexico had been rapidly increasing, raising concerns that China might exploit its presence in Mexico to gain enhanced access to U.S. markets. A year ago, shipments from China to Mexico were among the world’s fastest-growing trade routes.
However, Mexico is now restructuring its relationship with China, its second-largest trading partner. Just days after Mr. Trump first issued threats of tariffs, authorities conducted a raid on a large complex of stores in downtown Mexico City that were selling counterfeit Chinese products.
Subsequently, Mexico levied a 35 percent tariff on imports of Chinese apparel and began targeting Chinese e-commerce platforms such as Shein and Temu, by enforcing a 19 percent tariff on goods imported via courier services from China.
Yet, with various tariff threats looming, Mexico might need to take further action to appease the Trump administration by curtailing imports of products like semiconductors or automobiles, which are gaining traction in a vital market for U.S. car manufacturers.