Ahead of the Bihar assembly elections, the NDA government has expanded its cabinet to fulfill vacant posts, with all seven new ministers from BJP, signaling the party’s dominance. There are concerns about whether Nitish Kumar will remain as the chief ministerial candidate due to his declining health and popularity. The cabinet now has a diverse caste representation, but under-representation of Economically Backward Classes persists. As election approaches, internal party dynamics and negotiations over seat distribution are crucial. Analysts speculate if the BJP might mimic its Maharashtra strategy, potentially changing leadership post-polls amid rising political tensions and rival offers to Nitish.
As the Bihar assembly elections approach in October or November, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government in the state has made moves to expand its cabinet and fill empty roles. The new appointments seem focused on addressing caste and regional ambitions to enhance the alliance’s electoral chances. Notably, all seven new ministers hail from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), underscoring its significant presence within the alliance, yet uncertainty remains over whether the party will endorse Nitish Kumar as its chief ministerial candidate or opt for a strategy similar to Eknath Shinde after the elections.
Age And Health
Despite Nitish’s declining health and diminishing popularity, the Janata Dal (United) remains committed to promoting him as their chief ministerial candidate. With the contentious nature of ticket distributions and Nitish’s history of changing alliances, the upcoming months promise to be politically charged in Bihar. The cabinet expansion has ignited speculation that the state elections may be moved up.
The new BJP ministers who have been sworn in include Sanjay Saraogi (Darbhanga), Sunil Kumar (Biharsharif), Jibesh Kumar (Jale), Raju Kumar Singh (Sahebganj), Moti Lal Prasad (Riga), Krishna Kumar Mantu (Amnour), and Vijay Kumar Mandal (Sikti). Among these seven leaders, four belong to the OBC community, one to the EBC, and two represent upper castes, which are key voter segments for the saffron party.
The cabinet’s strength has now increased to 37 members; this includes the Chief Minister, 22 from the BJP, 13 from the JD(U), one from the Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM), and one independent member. This representation aligns with the overall strength of the alliance parties in the legislature: 84 members from the BJP and 48 from the JD(U).
Caste Calculations
Following the cabinet expansion, Nitish’s Cabinet now features 28% representation from the OBC community and 19% from Scheduled Castes (SCs). This roughly corresponds with the population proportions of these groups. However, the representation of Economically Backward Classes (EBC) and Most Backward Classes (MBC) is notably low at just 19%, in contrast to their actual 36% share of the state’s population. This situation is exacerbated by the classification of around 11% of Muslims in Bihar as EBC/MBC, while only one Muslim minister from the community is represented in the Cabinet.
Meanwhile, leaders from the General category account for 31% of the Cabinet, which is double their population share. Four ministers come from the Greater Mithilanchal region, which holds 15 seats. The NDA had successfully won 97 seats in this region in 2020, and the recent appointments appear aimed at further solidifying its support there.
In the 2020 elections, both alliances garnered approximately 37% of the votes. The NDA, however, received 11,150 votes more than the Mahagathbandhan led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). The NDA secured 125 of the 243 seats, surpassing the simple majority, and subsequently formed the government.
Central Considerations
This year, Bihar is poised for another closely contested election. A central issue for the BJP is whether it will officially designate Nitish Kumar as the chief ministerial candidate for the alliance. If the BJP decides to mimic its Maharashtra strategy and postpone naming a candidate until after the results, the post may ultimately go to the largest party in the alliance based on electoral performance. This situation is critical, as the BJP had previously asserted that Nitish would remain Chief Minister regardless of the parties’ seat tallies in 2020, a promise the BJP upheld despite winning nearly twice as many seats as the JD(U), a decision that did not sit well with some party members and supporters.
When Nitish executed a gharwapsi shortly before the 2024 general election, he retained his position as Chief Minister due to the BJP’s need for support from the JD(U)’s 12 MLAs in Parliament, a potential bargaining chip he may leverage in the forthcoming state elections.
The JD(U), already anxious following the BJP’s maneuvering in Maharashtra, has been pressing for an immediate announcement of Nitish as the chief ministerial candidate. Any delay could complicate dynamics, particularly given concerns about the 74-year-old leader’s declining health. Additionally, calls within the party for Nitish’s son, Nishant, to be named as his successor are intensifying.
In India, regional parties often tend to be family-run. Questions regarding the JD(U)’s future are already arising, particularly after Nitish, who commands 12-15% of the vote share thanks to the Kurmi, EBC/MBC, and Mahadalit communities.
Patchwork Politics?
Is it possible for the BJP to orchestrate a leadership change on the JD(U) just before the elections, similar to its actions with Shiv Sena, positioning a BJP Chief Minister? RJD leader Lalu Yadav has already expressed interest in inviting Nitish to rejoin the Mahagathbandhan, although Nitish has publicly rejected the offer. With only six months remaining before the elections, the BJP might prefer to sidestep such patchwork politics and hold off on making strategic decisions until after the results are in.
Discussions about seat allocation with the JD(U) are also anticipated to be complicated. In 2020, the JD(U) contested 115 seats, while the BJP ran for 110, the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) for 11, and the HAM for seven. This time, there is an additional player in the field: Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP). Given its current strength, the BJP is likely to push for a larger share of the seats than the JD(U). However, Nitish is expected to resist this pressure, as it would directly impact his leverage in post-election negotiations.
The ‘PK’ Factor
A variety of factors will shape this year’s Bihar election, including the ‘PK’ or Prashant Kishor element. While 15% of voters envision him as chief minister, his Jan Suraaj party garnered 10% of votes in the recent by-elections. How will ‘PK’ position himself? Will he align with the Muslim-Yadav vote bank of the Mahagathbandhan or appeal to the upper caste and OBC/EBC support base of the NDA? The answer, as is often said, is still unfolding.
(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In a previous role, he was engaged in corporate and investment banking.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author