Recent geopolitical events underscore the interconnected nature of global conflicts. In 1990, following the Cold War and the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan, factions like Al Qaeda emerged as key players in terrorism, reshaping global security. The rise of extremism was fueled by the power vacuums left after the Cold War. Recent tensions, particularly in Gaza and ongoing conflicts in Syria and Iraq, reflect potential new threats as groups like ISIS can exploit instability. The author argues that, amidst major geopolitical focus, smaller conflicts may significantly impact global security, necessitating attention to “small wars” that could lead to widespread destabilization.
Examining recent history offers valuable insights into the realms of geopolitics and geosecurity. Let’s take a step back to 1990—a crucial year in the international landscape. At that time, I had just returned with the final contingents of the Indian Peacekeeping Force (IPKF) from Sri Lanka and was en route to an Army cantonment in a designated ‘peace’ area. However, our course was swiftly altered, and we were redirected to Punjab. Our mission was to form a frontline, crossing the River Sutlej to counter Pakistan’s aggressive stance marked by its launch of Exercise Zarb-e-Momin and its support for militancy and terrorism in Punjab. Zarb-e-Momin, intended as a military training exercise with operational significance, aimed to convey a message and draw our focus elsewhere. Concurrently, tensions in Kashmir were escalating, creating the backdrop for a wider geopolitical conflict.
The Story Of Al Qaeda
It marked the closure of the Cold War era. The Berlin Wall had recently fallen, and Soviet forces were still in the process of withdrawing from Afghanistan. Punjab was engulfed in chaos, steering strategic attention in various directions. The Iran-Iraq War had concluded just a few years prior. By 1990, victorious jihadis from across the Islamic realm were emerging from the ruins of Afghanistan. This snapshot only captures a fraction of the global scenario at the time and misses the ongoing complexities in Africa, which was also transitioning from the shadows of past conflicts in Somalia, Mozambique, Namibia, Angola, and beyond.
Setting aside everything else, I often ponder: where did Al Qaeda originate? The roots trace back to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, which ignited a worldwide call for jihad against the Soviets. The US, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan supported the Afghan mujahideen with funding, arms, and training to counter Soviet influence. Osama bin Laden, a wealthy Saudi, joined the fight, coordinating foreign fighters and logistical support. This network would eventually evolve into Al Qaeda, founded in 1988.
Upon the Soviet withdrawal in 1989, bin Laden and his fellow jihadists perceived it as a victory for Islam over a superpower. When the Cold War came to a close in 1991, the US and its allies pulled out of Afghanistan, creating a power vacuum. Many foreign jihadists, bin Laden among them, identified their next mission as combating Western influence—especially the US, which they regarded as the next “occupying power.”
How Al Qaeda Became a Global Jihadi Network
Following Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990, bin Laden offered his mujahideen to defend Saudi Arabia, but the Saudi government turned him down, opting instead to invite US forces. This marked the formal rupture between him and his former allies, transforming Al Qaeda from an anti-Soviet faction into a global jihadist movement.
Al Qaeda’s rise closely aligned with the conclusion of the Cold War. The Soviet-Afghan War supplied the military experience, connections, and ideology essential for its formation. After the Soviets were defeated, the US and its allies abandoned Afghanistan, enabling extremism to take root. Bin Laden and his followers redirected their jihad toward the West, culminating in the global terrorist threats we confront today.
Several lessons can be gleaned from this. First, whenever the world emerges from a phase of intense activity and lets its guard down, it frequently faces unconventional upheaval. This pattern occurred in 1989-90 with the upsurge of terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir, just as it did during the civil wars in Africa between 1990 and 1995. The conflicts in Chechnya and Bosnia also tied into the events of this era. More recently, the withdrawal of US and Coalition troops from Iraq in 2011 ultimately facilitated the rise of ISIS (Daesh).
Even though ISIS suffered military setbacks in Mosul and Baghuz, it was only partially displaced, finding refuge in the northern badlands of Afghanistan. Al Qaeda has retained a presence there, alongside Central Asian and Pakistani terrorist factions. Meanwhile, the Taliban continues to be secretive and unreliable.
Lingering remnants of ISIS also persist in Kurdish-held regions along the Syria-Turkey border, posing a real risk of resurgence. If northern Syria and the Turkish border area remain unstable, ISIS could exploit these conditions to rebuild its networks and initiate new offensives. The interplay of weak governance, regional strife, and existing ISIS sleeper cells poses an ongoing and serious threat.
So, where does this situation lead us? In the first month of the new US President’s administration, the global order is already experiencing significant disruption. While attention is focused on Ukraine, Gaza, the Indo-Pacific, trade disputes, and tariffs, seemingly minor issues are also evolving, often with the potential to escalate into major crises. Recall how ISIS first emerged in June 2014?
We must weigh the long-term repercussions of the widespread destruction in Gaza. An entire generation of Palestinian youth now exists in despair—a feeling that extends beyond youth to encompass the broader population. For those who have suffered such loss and hardship, feelings of revenge and retribution become potent motivators, leading to the broader blame being laid on the entire world. This creates a fertile environment for the growth of terrorist groups.
If you’re curious how these groups sustain themselves—with resources, manpower, and finances—the obstacles are no longer as significant as they once were. Ideologies are plentiful, and a cause (whether deemed just or unjust) is not difficult to create when retribution drives the agenda.
How Will Current Gaza Turmoil Manifest Itself
No formal or direct connections exist between Palestinian groups and ISIS. The latter subscribes to an extreme Salafi-jihadist ideology and has frequently criticized Palestinian factions, including Hamas, for being overly nationalistic and not aligning with its vision of global jihad. However, in a desperate bid for survival, Hamas might alter its stance, potentially paving the way for some level of collaboration with ISIS.
Hezbollah, a Shia group loyal to Iran, is a priority for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). While Hezbollah and Hamas have historically collaborated on various fronts, Hamas’s ideology isn’t far removed from ISIS’s radicalism, with its influence and aims possibly extending beyond Palestine into other areas of the Arab world. This poses a notable concern for regional stability.
On February 5, 2025, at the Kashmir Solidarity Day event in Rawalakot, Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), representatives from Hamas—Khalid Qaddoumi and Naji Zaheer—were in attendance. They garnered considerable attention from members of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), marking the first instance of Hamas officials participating in an event in PoK. While this may not yet indicate a formal alliance, it reflects a growing effort to forge wider networks within transnational terrorism, also referred to as global terrorism. Similar patterns of resurgence could emerge in East and West Africa, where Al Shabab and Boko Haram hold significant influence.
My message is straightforward: While global focus is drawn to major geopolitical issues—such as European security, NATO’s future, the plight of Palestinians, and the renewal of US-Russia cooperation—there must be an equal emphasis on smaller conflicts. These so-called “small wars” possess the potential to reshape global security in far more destabilizing ways than we may currently comprehend.
(The writer is a Member of the National Disaster Management Authority, Chancellor of the Central University of Kashmir, and Former GOC of the Srinagar-based 15 Corps.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author