Speaker Mike Johnson’s narrow passage of a Republican budget resolution highlights his tenuous hold on a divided majority, heavily reliant on President Trump’s influence. With no backup plan, Johnson faced potential defeat until Trump’s phone calls persuaded wavering Republicans to support the bill. This dynamic mirrors previous leadership patterns, as even Johnson’s predecessor, Kevin McCarthy, acknowledged Trump’s critical role. Vulnerable members now use Trump’s support to justify their votes amid concerns over potential Medicaid cuts. Johnson celebrates the initial success but faces challenges ahead as the Senate reviews the budget, requiring compromises that may discord with party hardliners.
Speaker Mike Johnson’s achievement in pushing a Republican budget resolution through the House this week, following a near defeat moments earlier, highlighted his tenuous grip on his unruly majority — and his significant dependence on President Trump to unify his members.
He confessed to reporters on Tuesday night as he entered the chamber for a vote he might lose that there was no backup plan if the budget failed. Ultimately, Plan A hinged on a crucial intervention from the president, who made calls that helped sway the few Republicans blocking his domestic agenda, which he dubbed “one big beautiful bill.”
Mr. Johnson remarked after the vote that the president was “a big help.” This was likely an understatement. The situation illustrated how Mr. Johnson, having already aligned himself with Mr. Trump, is reliant on the president to navigate the challenging dynamics of his slim majority and the unpredictable attitudes and firm stances of his colleagues.
It was Mr. Trump who engaged in a 15-minute conversation with Representative Tim Burchett, the Tennessee Republican who was among the last holdouts against the bill, before he eventually voted “yes.” Another key skeptic, Representative Victoria Spartz from Indiana, was seen by her peers in tears while speaking on the phone with Mr. Trump in a cloakroom just off the House floor.
“He’s on board to achieve significant progress on health care,” she told reporters afterwards. “I trust his word.”
The vote to adopt the budget on Tuesday night mirrored the process seen during Mr. Johnson’s election as speaker in January. He was on the edge of defeat in the first round but was ultimately pushed over the line when Mr. Trump interrupted his golf game to contact the undecided members by phone.
This trend is not new to Mr. Johnson, nor did it start with Mr. Trump’s recent return to the White House. Mr. Johnson’s predecessor, Kevin McCarthy, expressed gratitude to Mr. Trump first in his Oscar-like speech following his victory in the drawn-out speaker election in 2023, even when Mr. Trump was somewhat sidelined and out of power at Mar-a-Lago.
“I want to extend my special thanks to President Trump,” Mr. McCarthy stated at that time. “No one should doubt his influence.”
On Wednesday, Mr. Johnson earned some recognition for successfully pushing through the resolution, with a margin that allowed for just a single vote loss.
“He took quite a risk by going to the floor without having secured the votes,” noted Brendan Buck, a former top advisor to Speakers Paul Ryan and John Boehner. “That requires courage — to confront many of these members and have them yield.”
On social media, Mr. Trump expressed satisfaction, declaring in a Truth Social post that the vote marked a “Big First Step Win for Speaker Mike Johnson, and AMERICA.”
Hours prior to the vote on Tuesday morning, Representative Tom Emmer from Minnesota, the No. 3 House Republican, acknowledged the party’s heavy reliance on Mr. Trump’s assistance when he referred to the G.O.P. control of the House, Senate, and White House not as a Republican trifecta, but rather the “Trump trifecta.”
During the same news conference, while advocating for the G.O.P. budget, Mr. Johnson seemed to issue a subtle warning to any Republican who might oppose Mr. Trump.
“Everyone wants to be on this train,” Mr. Johnson stated regarding the fiscal plan, “and not in front of it.”
Some vulnerable House Republicans representing swing districts spent Wednesday trying to rationalize their votes for the budget resolution, which could lead to cuts in Medicaid, by using Mr. Trump — who has pledged not to cut the program — as a political shield.
“Last night’s vote was just a procedural step to initiate federal budget negotiations and does NOT alter any current laws,” stated Representative Rob Bresnahan Jr., a first-term Republican from a competitive district in Pennsylvania. “I will fight to protect working-class families in Northeastern Pennsylvania and stand with President Trump in opposing cuts to Medicaid.”
Democrats have argued that hundreds of billions of dollars in cuts that the Energy and Commerce Committee, which oversees Medicaid, is being tasked to identify can only be achieved through what would amount to the largest cuts to Medicaid in history.
“We’re going to celebrate tonight,” Mr. Johnson declared post-vote, even while acknowledging that approving the budget plan was merely the easy initial step in the complex and politically sensitive process of advancing Mr. Trump’s agenda through Congress.
Mr. Johnson will need to reconvene with those same wavering members after the Senate addresses the budget plan, and will likely face the need to compromise on some policies that initially did not go far enough for them.
“The resolution they passed appears misaligned with what can pass through the Senate,” Mr. Buck stated. “Now it becomes significantly more challenging.”