Afghanistan’s victory over England intensifies the race for semi-finals qualification in Group B, with Australia, Afghanistan, and South Africa in contention. Upcoming matches pit Australia against Afghanistan and South Africa against England. If Australia and South Africa win, both qualify with five points, while South Africa could secure the top spot due to a better net run rate (NRR). Various scenarios exist based on potential outcomes, including qualification for Afghanistan if they win against England. A washed-out match could see Australia ensured qualification with four points, while Afghanistan’s chance diminishes significantly under certain conditions.
With Afghanistan’s victory over England, the race for the semi-finals from Group B has intensified, now involving three teams with two games remaining. On Friday, Australia (three points, NRR 0.475) will compete against Afghanistan (two points, NRR -0.99) in Lahore, while South Africa (three points, NRR 2.14) faces England on Saturday. Here’s a breakdown of potential qualification scenarios based on the outcomes of these matches.
If Australia and South Africa secure wins
If both Australia and South Africa win, they will each qualify with five points. The leading position in the group will be determined by their respective win margins, with South Africa likely to secure the top spot due to their significant victory over Afghanistan. If South Africa wins by just one run while scoring 300, Australia would need to win by 87 runs (assuming they reach the same first-innings total) to surpass South Africa’s NRR.
If Australia and England prevail
In this scenario, Australia would top the group with five points, while South Africa would finish second with three points.
If Afghanistan and South Africa win
South Africa would take the top position with five points, with Afghanistan finishing second with four points, leaving Australia behind.
If Afghanistan and England are victorious
If this happens, Afghanistan will rise to the top with four points. The second position will be contested between Australia and South Africa, both ending the day on three points. Currently, South Africa holds a substantial advantage in net run rate, meaning Australia would require South Africa to incur a significant loss against England to overtake them on NRR. For example, if Australia were to lose by just one run after Afghanistan scores 300, South Africa would need to lose by 87 runs while chasing the same target for their NRR to dip below Australia’s.
If the Australia-Afghanistan match is affected by rain
With possible rain showers predicted in Lahore on Friday, if the match is abandoned, Australia would receive one point, bringing them to four points and securing their qualification.
Should South Africa defeat England, they would finish at the top of the group with five points. However, if England wins, both South Africa and Afghanistan would end up with three points, making net run rate a deciding factor. Afghanistan (NRR -0.99) would likely be eliminated, as they would require a minimum 207-run loss for South Africa (while chasing 301) to advance to second place and qualify.