2025 NBA Playoffs: Key Factors Influencing the Conference Finals

In Game 3 of the Eastern Conference finals, the Knicks adapted their defense by increasing ball pressure, crucially impacting their victory over the Pacers. Traditionally, the Knicks applied minimal pressure, but with time running out, they sent multiple defenders to pressure the ball, disrupting Indiana’s offense. This tactic limited their efficiency, forcing a contested shot that contributed to New York’s 106-100 win. Meanwhile, in the Western Conference, the Timberwolves adjusted their defensive pressure against Gilgeous-Alexander, initially overcommitting but later scaling back effectively. These strategic shifts in ball pressure are shaping the playoff landscape and influencing team performances significantly.

With less than six minutes left in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Sunday, the New York Knicks adopted a new defensive strategy.

Normally, the Knicks establish their base defense deep in their own territory and, until that point in the series, they had only sent one player to impose minimal pressure after a free throw. However, when Karl-Anthony Towns made a crucial late-game free throw, putting his team ahead 91-90 after an unexpected comeback, the Knicks sent not one, not two, but three defenders back to intensify ball pressure.

Initially, Miles McBride and Mikal Bridges executed a double team on Tyrese Haliburton, redirecting the inbounds pass to Pascal Siakam instead of the Pacers’ impactful point guard. Following this, OG Anunoby picked up Siakam early, leading to a trap that left them almost securing a steal at midcourt.

With roughly half the shot clock expired, the Pacers began their offense with a sloppy pick-and-roll. The Knicks countered effectively, not allowing the ball inside the three-point arc until there were only seven seconds left on the shot clock. By then, Siakam was forced into a contested midrange jumper, one of the least efficient shots in basketball.

The Knicks successfully disrupted the Pacers’ possession and prevented a scoring opportunity. Haliburton didn’t even touch the ball. In the next sequence, Towns launched a 3-pointer, extending New York’s lead and sealing the game at 106-100 for their first victory in the series.

The impact of ball pressure—who applies it, where it begins, and when teams decide to adjust—serves as a critical subplot of the 2025 conference finals. Although it may not be directly reflected on the scoreboard, ball pressure influences every possession, modifies offensive game plans, and shifts the outcomes of games.

When factoring in how possessions initiate—for example, teams are more capable of applying early pressure following an inbounds pass compared to a live rebound—the overall NBA has recorded a 109 offensive rating against backcourt pressure during these playoffs, compared to a 111 offensive rating in the absence of such pressure. While notable, this difference isn’t drastic.

However, in closely contested playoff matches, every point matters, and substantial variations exist from team to team. Some teams excel at putting pressure on their opponents. In last year’s Eastern Conference semifinals, the Pacers placed significant pressure on New York’s Jalen Brunson—more than any team managed against any ball handler. The Timberwolves ranked second for pressuring Jamal Murray of the Nuggets and third for targeting Reggie Jackson, Murray’s backup.

Both Indiana and Minnesota succeeded in their respective second-round series, both concluding in seven games, and now they find themselves once again in the conference finals.

Both 2025 conference finals initially stood at 2-0, but appear more competitive now, thanks largely to the understated but powerful effect of ball pressure on postseason dynamics.


Eastern Finals: New York adopts Indiana’s tactics

The Pacers’ commitment to pressure aligns with their identity as a high-tempo team that thrives on chaos. While they may not boast the best individual defenders in the league, they consistently challenge their opponents every time they move the ball.

Throughout the regular season, the Pacers boasted the fifth-highest average pickup distance on half-court possessions. In the playoffs, their aggressiveness has intensified; six opposing players have handled the ball on over 50 half-court possessions, with the Pacers picking up five of them an average of 53 feet (or more) from the basket. For context, the NBA half-court line sits at 47 feet from the basket.

In other words, five of the nine most aggressive pressure strategies targeting specific ball handlers in the postseason originated with the Pacers. They opted for a more restrained approach only against the Milwaukee Bucks’ Giannis Antetokounmpo, who poses minimal threat from the perimeter. (All pressure statistics in this analysis are sourced from GeniusIQ tracking and pertain to non-transition possessions.)

In contrast, the Knicks typically adopt a different philosophy. During the regular season, their average pickup distance stood at just 37 feet, ranking them 28th; only the Nuggets and the Lakers allowed their opponents to drift further before initiating defense. Coach Tom Thibodeau’s Knicks maintained this approach throughout the playoffs, averaging a 38-foot pickup distance, consistent with their regular-season performance.

However, in the fourth quarter of Game 3, facing a critical need for stops to save their season, the Knicks raised their average pickup distance to 45 feet—the highest they achieved in any quarter during the conference finals.

This increased pressure occasionally forced the ball away from Haliburton and required the Pacers to take additional seconds to navigate past half-court and set up their offense. While this may seem minor, every second and point counts in such a tightly contested series.

As Jared Dubin noted for FiveThirtyEight, offensive efficiency tends to increase when teams initiate plays earlier. For a defense, “the more time you want the offense to waste, the farther up the court you should apply pressure on the ball handler.” Dubin spotlighted McBride as one of the league’s most adept full-court defenders, effectively using this capability in Game 3 with Brunson largely absent due to foul trouble.

With Haliburton orchestrating the offense, the Pacers become exceptionally efficient, making it imperative for New York to disrupt their rhythm. In the fourth quarter of Game 3, the Knicks ramped up their defensive pressure, successfully taking control of the game, which ultimately led to their triumph.


Western Finals: Adjust and Readjust

In the West, another strategic modification involving ball pressure has impacted the conference finals. The Timberwolves generally play in a manner reminiscent of the Pacers. They ranked sixth in terms of regular-season pickup distance and recorded the highest average pickup point of any team in the first round (52 feet), as they continuously pressured Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves, keeping the Lakers’ offense on its heels.

Employing a rotation of long, athletic defenders, the Timberwolves’ extended pressure places a great strain on opponents across the court. NBA analyst Owen Phillips suggested that this method drained the Lakers’ limited rotation, as they altered their performance per half: leading by just five points during the first halves but getting outscored by thirty in the second halves.

However, this isn’t a universally effective strategy against every opponent—such as a deep and youthful Oklahoma City Thunder squad that won’t succumb to fatigue. In the first two games of the Western Conference finals, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander effectively turned that pressure to his advantage.

By picking up Gilgeous-Alexander early, the Timberwolves allowed the Thunder to set screens high on the court, expanding his operating space before encountering Rudy Gobert’s drop coverage. In Game 1, the average screen for Gilgeous-Alexander was situated 28.3 feet from the basket, the highest of any playoff game he played.

In Game 2, that figure slightly increased to 28.6 feet.

For reference, only Stephen Curry of the Warriors (29.1 feet) and Damian Lillard of the Bucks (28.9 feet) had average screen distances this high in the regular season. Essentially, the Timberwolves treated Gilgeous-Alexander as though he were one of the greatest pick-and-roll threats in NBA history.

However, the 2024-25 MVP primarily excels in driving rather than pulling up for 3-pointers, thus the Timberwolves inadvertently provided him the necessary space to shine. While they may have expressed grievances about Gilgeous-Alexander’s foul calls, their strategy inadvertently played into his strengths, culminating in 69 points and 29 free throw attempts across their two home game victories.

Take a look at this play from the early moments of the series. Jaden McDaniels picks up Gilgeous-Alexander before the half-court line, as the Thunder execute a formidable double screen with Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein positioned well on the perimeter. As the two screens lock in, McDaniels is left behind, allowing Gilgeous-Alexander to move unhindered into open midrange space and earn an easy foul on Gobert.

Alternatively, observe this play from the beginning of Game 2. This time, McDaniels trails Gilgeous-Alexander all the way up the court, leading to Hartenstein setting a screen near the midcourt logo. Gilgeous-Alexander races downhill, creating an easy chance for a rolling Hartenstein within his floater range.

The Thunder likely anticipated this type of pressure; the Timberwolves had been aggressively defending Gilgeous-Alexander’s pick-and-rolls throughout the season, evidenced by his two games with the highest pick-and-roll distances both occurring against them in the regular season.

Nonetheless, similar to the Knicks, the Timberwolves modified their strategy after falling 2-0 in the series, but they chose to retract their pressure rather than increase it. In Game 3, the average screen for Gilgeous-Alexander was positioned 25 feet from the basket, representing a 3-foot reduction in his space.

The consequence of this adjustment was that Gilgeous-Alexander experienced his least effective pick-and-roll game of the playoffs. Oklahoma City averaged merely 0.73 points per possession when he utilized a screen, a drop from 1.07 across the initial two contests.

On this notable sequence early in Game 3, McDaniels retreated to the three-point line before settling into his defensive stance. When Holmgren screened, Gilgeous-Alexander had less room to maneuver, immediate assistance was nearby, and the Thunder ultimately produced a contested 3-pointer from Luguentz Dort.

Observe the moment Gilgeous-Alexander passes to Dort: Just two dribbles post-pick, he encounters a triple-team with Gobert on standby as a fourth layer of defense, just in case he manages to free himself.

In summary, the Timberwolves recorded an average pickup distance of 48 feet when Gilgeous-Alexander received the ball in Game 1, 46 feet in Game 2, and only 35 feet in Game 3.

Overall, the efficacy of ball pressure hinges on both the defensive team’s strategy and the ball handler’s attributes. Pickup distances consequently align with shooting threats. Among players who have brought the ball up on at least 1,000 half-court possessions during the 2024-25 regular season, Curry, Brunson, Doncic, Lillard, and Cade Cunningham of the Pistons experienced the highest average pickup distances while Nikola Jokic, Amen Thompson of the Rockets, Antetokounmpo, Ben Simmons of the Clippers, and Ja Morant of the Grizzlies encountered the lowest.

Ball pressure carries weight, but its flexibility must adapt to opponents’ strengths. Treating Gilgeous-Alexander like Curry proved counterproductive, a mistake Minnesota coach Chris Finch rectified in Game 3.

Naturally, the intrigue of a lengthy playoff series lies in adjustments and readjustments; the Thunder regained the tactical edge in a pivotal Game 4 victory, implementing three novel strategies to help Gilgeous-Alexander regain his rhythm.

SGA capitalized on defensive lapses, shooting from distance more frequently; his seven attempts from beyond the arc marked a series high. He also more swiftly executed passes, racking up a playoff career-high 10 assists. Furthermore, he funneled a greater portion of the offense through Jalen Williams, who contributed a playoff career-best 34 points to support Gilgeous-Alexander’s impressive 40-point performance.

This nuanced tug-of-war may remain concealed by traditional statistics, but it warrants close attention as the postseason progresses. The fluctuations in ball pressure across teams and games can dramatically influence outcomes—this includes games, series, and potentially, championships.

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