As the 2025 MLB season progresses beyond Memorial Day, the landscape of team standings and award races begins to solidify. Key players like Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani dominate the MVP discussions, while emerging talents add excitement. In the AL, Judge is tracking towards historic stats, while in the NL, Pete Crow-Armstrong is carving a strong narrative. The Cy Young races are led by Kris Bubic and Jesus Luzardo, showcasing impressive pitching performances. For rookies, Jacob Wilson stands out in the AL, and Chad Patrick is making waves in the NL. Managerial honors are led by A.J. Hinch and Rob Thomson, both of whom have significantly impacted their teams.
Now that Memorial Day weekend has passed, the 2025 MLB season is starting to take shape. Although specifics may shift, we have moved past the stage where teams and analysts can brush off early results with a casual “it’s early.”
This applies to the 30 clubs as they reach this significant milestone in the baseball season. Moreover, numerous players have enough data that their stats have normalized—a great opportunity to evaluate the awards races.
As we unveil our initial Awards Watch rankings for the season, much remains familiar from where we concluded in 2024. Notably, the AXE ratings show a repeat in the American League MVP contention and a competitive showdown for the National League MVP title.
This isn’t surprising, considering the first weeks of the 2025 season have done little to alter the high regard for Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, who continue to accomplish remarkable feats in captivating ways.
However, new talents have emerged as well, adding intrigue to the campaign. Will any of these newcomers pose a challenge to Judge and Ohtani’s ongoing dominance throughout the season?
While that remains uncertain, it promises to be exciting to see them contend, with the race for awards already heating up.
Most Valuable Player
American League
Current Leader: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (157 AXE)
Following nine: 2. Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (137); 3. Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals (133); 4. Alex Bregman, Boston Red Sox (129); 5. Jacob Wilson, Athletics (128); 6. Isaac Paredes, Houston Astros (126); 7. Rafael Devers, Red Sox (124); 8. (tie) Jeremy Pena, Astros (123); Steven Kwan, Cleveland Guardians (123); 10. Jose Ramirez, Guardians (122)
Trends in Leadership: Presently, Judge is competing mainly against his own previous achievements. Last season, Judge recorded a wRC+ of 218, which ranks as one of the top seven offensive seasons in the modern era. In 2025, he is on pace to outdo this, potentially breaking Barry Bonds’ 2002 record of 244. He currently leads the AL in all major batting categories, including home runs, RBIs, hits, and runs. We may soon see articles questioning, “Can Judge really hit .400?” The only potential obstacle to his unanimous MVP recognition is injury.
Biggest Mover: For this debut edition of Awards Watch, the “biggest mover” is based on the concluding numbers from 2024. Though Detroit’s Spencer Torkelson (118 AXE) hasn’t yet made the top 10, he deserves recognition for rebounding from a poor season. Drafted first overall in 2020 by Detroit, Torkelson started this season below replacement level in his career. He has since transformed his game, contributing 1.5 bWAR already, surpassing his 2024 home run and RBI tallies before Memorial Day, and improving his OPS+ from 89 to 148. This is the performance the Tigers envisioned when they selected Tork.
Keep an Eye On: Raleigh has claimed the title of MLB’s best all-around catcher. Following his first Gold Glove, he has also shined as one of the league’s top hitters. A player known for three true outcomes, Raleigh has elevated his game by hitting home runs at a near-Judge-like rate, slightly reducing strikeouts and significantly improving his walk rate. His on-contact numbers are also seeing improvement as he’s converted some ground balls into line drives, culminating in a batting average breakout at .254.
National League
Current Leader: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs (138)
Following nine: 2. Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers (136); 3. Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres (134); 4. (tie) Geraldo Perdomo, Arizona Diamondbacks (130); Kyle Tucker, Cubs (130); 6. Freddie Freeman, Dodgers (129); 7. Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks (127); 8. Will Smith, Dodgers (125); 9. James Wood, Washington Nationals (125); 10. Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies (124)
Trends in Leadership: Crow-Armstrong’s rise has evolved into one of baseball’s most compelling narratives this season. Before the season began, we acknowledged that PCA, as he’s commonly termed, possessed impressive defensive and baserunning skills. The big question was whether his hitting could catch up. Secrets to a potential 40/40 season have emerged, though his strike zone numbers indicate possible regression ahead—more than five strikeouts for every walk—yet so far, he’s been magnificent.
Biggest Mover: Perdomo has revitalized his batting approach, establishing himself as the top shortstop in the NL during the early season. A naturally high-contact hitter, Perdomo has managed to decrease whiffs while increasing walks—a difficult dual accomplishment—resulting in an OBP nearing the coveted .400 mark. He’s also generated more power, matching his career-high with six early-season homers. Combined with his standard strong defensive play and a perfect 11-for-11 record on the basepaths, the Diamondbacks have found themselves with a premier shortstop.
Keep an Eye On: Surprisingly steady, Ohtani may seem slightly off compared to last year’s record-setting performance. Nevertheless, his stats are projected to match or exceed those from 2024. He’s on track for 57 home runs and an eye-popping 171 runs. The only decline thus far is in his stolen base count; however, his performance metrics might soon be elevated further by his pitching statistics. Notably, even though Ohtani isn’t leading NL players in either major WAR variant, AXE recognizes his significant advantage in WPA among all NL hitters.
Cy Young
American League
Current Leader: Kris Bubic, Royals (134)
Following nine: 2. (tie) Max Fried, Yankees (130); Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers (130); 4. Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (129); 5. Garrett Crochet, Red Sox (127); 6. Hunter Brown, Astros (125); 7. Andres Munoz, Mariners (123); 8. (tie) Tyler Mahle, Rangers (121); Bryan Woo, Mariners (121); 10. Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins (119)
Trends in Leadership: Bubic’s climb hasn’t exactly come out of the blue; he has confirmed the expectations of those who anticipated his breakout in 2025. The cerebral lefty has adjusted his pitching repertoire throughout his career, which included elbow surgery and recovery time. Bubic has excelled by being assertive within the strike zone, achieving success without elite velocity. While it’s unlikely he’ll maintain his current 1.45 ERA over the full season, this contest is just beginning, and leaderboard changes are likely each time any of these pitchers take the mound.
Biggest Mover: Brown has demonstrated flashes of brilliance in the past, but in 2025 he has attained a new level of effectiveness, merging dominance with consistency. He leads the AL with eight quality starts out of 10 games played. His average game score (64.4) trails only that of Eovaldi, Fried, and Skubal in the league.
Keep an Eye On: Skubal, last year’s winner by a landslide, remains a frontrunner to repeat his success; even if he hasn’t fully returned to the top statistical rankings. His ERA has risen slightly (from 2.39 to 2.49), yet his FIP has improved (from 2.49 to 1.98). This underscores the likelihood of his sustaining the dominance he’s displayed since last season. In fact, Skubal’s most recent outing—a complete-game, two-hit, 13-strikeout shutout against Cleveland—was the highlight of his exceptional career.
National League
Current Leader: Jesus Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies (133)
Following nine: 2. Zack Wheeler, Phillies (130); 3. Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates (125); 4. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers (124); 5. Kodai Senga, New York Mets (121); 6. Robbie Ray, San Francisco Giants (119); 7. (tie) Nick Pivetta, Padres (118); Logan Webb, Giants (118); Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds (118); 10. MacKenzie Gore, Nationals (118)
Trends in Leadership: Luzardo was a top-10 prospect upon his MLB debut with the A’s in 2019. While he has shown flashes of promise moving between the A’s, Marlins, and Phillies, he is finally delivering what scouts envisioned. His metrics show improvements across the board: more strikeouts, fewer walks, and an impressively low home run rate. His ascendance compensates for the early tribulations of teammate Aaron Nola.
Biggest Mover: While it’s technically Luzardo, let’s highlight Senga, who has returned brilliantly following an injury-riddled 2024 season. His ERA of 1.46—leading the NL—will likely regress, but Senga has stepped up as the ace the Mets desperately needed. Over 10 matches, he has faced 228 batters and allowed merely two home runs. That’s impressive for a player who participated in just one regular-season game last year and yielded seven runs over five postseason innings.
Keep an Eye On: After finishing as a runner-up in the NL Cy Young voting last year (for the second occasion in his Phillies tenure), Wheeler appears poised to elevate his game even further. His ERA and FIP metrics align with 2024, but he has been even more effective in strikeouts and walks. As per FanGraphs, only Gore has a superior strikeouts-minus-walks percentage, an outstanding metric for evaluating dominance and sustainability.
Rookie of the Year
American League
Current Leader: Jacob Wilson, Athletics (128)
Following nine: 2. Carlos Narvaez, Red Sox (120); 3. Shane Smith, Chicago White Sox (113); 4. Chase Meidroth, White Sox (111); 5. Cam Smith, Astros (110); 6. (tie) Justin Sterner, Athletics (107); Noah Cameron, Royals (107); Will Warren, Yankees (107); Tomoyuki Sugano, Baltimore Orioles (107); 10. Kameron Misner, Tampa Bay Rays (106)
Trends in Leadership: Wilson stands out as one of the most intriguing players in Major League Baseball. In light of modern player development and evaluation metrics, how do you account for a player like him? Some of his Statcast percentile rankings include: bat speed (1st), hard-hit rate (6th), walk rate (21st), and expected batting average (96th). Remarkably, Wilson has struck out in just 5% of his plate appearances this season. He swings aggressively, makes contact consistently, and manages to find gaps with his hits. Can this continue? One can only hope, as baseball would benefit from more hitters like him flourishing.
Biggest Mover: Given their rookie status, we’ll overlook this for the first edition. However, rookie rankings can fluctuate significantly throughout the season, especially for those still in the minors who may become top candidates. A notable example is Kansas City’s Jac Caglianone, who has rapidly advanced from Double-A to Triple-A, and after hitting five home runs over the weekend, he is keen on continuing his slugging trajectory to the majors. Stay tuned for next month’s updates.
Keep an Eye On: Kristian Campbell (93 AXE) has quickly ascended to become a prominent piece in the Boston lineup. The Red Sox have awarded him an eight-year contract extension. His future looks bright. While his statistics aren’t extraordinary yet, improvement seems likely, making him a key player in the Rookie of the Year conversation as an everyday player on a contending team—assuming he can capitalize on that potential.
National League
Current Leader: Chad Patrick, Brewers (113)
Following nine: 2. Drake Baldwin, Atlanta Braves (111); 3. Ben Casparius, Dodgers (110); 4. Logan Henderson, Brewers (107); 5. Liam Hicks, Miami Marlins (106); 6. Tim Tawa, Diamondbacks (104); 7. Max Kranick, Mets (103); 8. Jack Dreyer, Dodgers (103); 9. AJ Smith-Shawver, Braves (102); 10. Isaac Collins, Brewers (101)
Trends in Leadership: The Brewers consistently identify one or two unnoticed pitchers who excel. This year, Patrick fits that profile, showcasing a 3.23 ERA across 11 outings, including 10 starts. His absence of swing-and-miss stats kept him off the prospect boards, but he has utilized command and induced soft contact effectively. Patrick has undergone two trades in his career—moving from Arizona to Oakland for Jace Peterson at the 2023 deadline and then to Milwaukee for Abraham Toro after that season. This is the Brewers’ modus operandi.
Biggest Mover: While Wilson has clearly emerged as the AL Rookie of the Year front-runner, no similar candidate has yet gained traction in the NL. Baldwin has performed brilliantly, albeit not as a regular player. Casparius has been effective, but not in a conventional role that typically garners award attention. This leaderboard is likely to see significant shifts in a month. Nonetheless, expect Baldwin to remain a contender as he has been a true force at the plate when given the opportunity, increasingly taking playing time from veteran Sean Murphy.
Keep an Eye On: Henderson has started only four games, yet his debut has been phenomenal. Winning his first three outings, he has allowed only four runs over 21 innings, striking out 29 while walking six. He becomes the first pitcher in Brewers history to win each of his first three career appearances.
Manager of the Year
Current Leader: A.J. Hinch, Tigers (109.8 EARL)
Next Four: 2. Stephen Vogt, Guardians (108.6); 3. Ron Washington, Los Angeles Angels (105.5); 4. Dan Wilson, Mariners (105.3); 5. Matt Quatraro, Royals (104.7)
Overview: The Tigers’ resurgence may have sparked late last season, but it has surged further in 2025, positioning Detroit as the narrative in the American League. The Tigers’ over/under for wins at ESPN BET has shifted from 83.5 at season’s commencement to 95.5, translating to a 12-win increase—more than any other team. Remarkably, Hinch has yet to secure Manager of the Year honors.
National League
Current Leader: Rob Thomson, Phillies (107.7)
Next Four: 2. Oliver Marmol, St. Louis Cardinals (106.7); 3. Bob Melvin, Giants (104.9); 4. Craig Counsell, Cubs (104.3); 5. Dave Martinez, Nationals (104.2)
Overview: This race is closely contested, with Thomson surprisingly taking the lead early on. The Phillies were expected to be competitive, yet they’ve outperformed their run differential by three wins thus far and boast an impressive 10-4 record in one-run games. This evaluation system rewards such performances. Marmol is quickly rising as the Cardinals gain unexpected momentum, distinguishing him, Counsell, and Melvin as the more traditional contenders compared to Thomson.